Risk of major thunderstorm outbreak for the British Isles is growing





The UK has been warned that after the most prolonged June heatwave for 20 years, a severe, major outbreak of thunderstorms could lead to flight delays, flooding and disruption, to parts of the UK.


See if your area is at risk with our interactive map.

Today temperatures reached 32.4C in places, similar values are forecast tomorrow and on Wednesday. However the heat and humidity will really build so that by Wednesday, some very large thunderstorms could bring severe disruption to parts of the UK. On Tuesday, some beefy yet isolated intense thunderstorms are forecast to develop across Central areas of England. Whereas on Wednesday there is a more widespread risk of severe weather;

Tuesday 20th June:

Wednesday 21st June:

As you can see, as Tuesday's risk is fairly isolated, during Wednesday instability from the Atlantic will combined with the intense heat to trigger off some very lively storms, particularly in the morning and into early afternoon across Scotland and Northern Ireland, and then in the afternoon some isolated, slow moving corkers are possible across Northern England, North Wales and parts of the North Midlands as indicated on our warning map.

We are most concerned about Scotland and Northern Ireland where here rainfall totals in excess of 50mm could lead to flooding in places, whereas the risk further South in Northern England, North Wales and southwards into the Midlands is more for large hail, strong winds and also flooding. The risk of thunderstorms on Wednesday also extends Southwards into parts of SW England ie Wilshire, Somerset, and the South Midlands, due to the higher temps here the thunderstorms could be particularly intense. During Wednesday night most of the storms will fade but rumble on well into the evening in the North.

Storms by nature are hit and miss therefore it is impossible to guarantee that a certain area will be impacted by storms but you are urged to be aware of the situation and the likelihood of thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Intense Thunderstorms Forecast for the UK on warning


Test post. The UK has been warned that after the most prolonged June heatwave for 20 years, a severe, major outbreak of thunderstorms could lead to flight delays, flooding and disruption, to parts of the UK.

See if your area is at risk with our interactive map.

Today temperatures reached 32.4C in places, similar values are forecast tomorrow and on Wednesday. However the heat and humidity will really build so that by Wednesday, some very large thunderstorms could bring severe disruption to parts of the UK. On Tuesday, some beefy yet isolated intense thunderstorms are forecast to develop across Central areas of England. Whereas on Wednesday there is a more widespread risk of severe weather;

Tuesday 20th June:

Wednesday 21st June:

As you can see, as Tuesday's risk is fairly isolated, during Wednesday instability from the Atlantic will combined with the intense heat to trigger off some very lively storms, particularly in the morning and into early afternoon across Scotland and Northern Ireland, and then in the afternoon some isolated, slow moving corkers are possible across Northern England, North Wales and parts of the North Midlands as indicated on our warning map.

We are most concerned about Scotland and Northern Ireland where here rainfall totals in excess of 50mm could lead to flooding in places, whereas the risk further South in Northern England, North Wales and southwards into the Midlands is more for large hail, strong winds and also flooding. The risk of thunderstorms on Wednesday also extends Southwards into parts of SW England ie Wilshire, Somerset, and the South Midlands, due to the higher temps here the thunderstorms could be particularly intense. During Wednesday night most of the storms will fade but rumble on well into the evening in the North.

Storms by nature are hit and miss therefore it is impossible to guarantee that a certain area will be impacted by storms but you are urged to be aware of the situation and the likelihood of thunderstorms on Wednesday.

UK braced for major thunderstorm outbreak after heatwave arrives – Latest Forecast


The UK has been warned that after the most prolonged June heatwave for 20 years, a severe, major outbreak of thunderstorms could lead to flight delays, flooding and disruption, to parts of the UK.

See if your area is at risk with our interactive map.

Today temperatures reached 32.4C in places, similar values are forecast tomorrow and on Wednesday. However the heat and humidity will really build so that by Wednesday, some very large thunderstorms could bring severe disruption to parts of the UK. On Tuesday, some beefy yet isolated intense thunderstorms are forecast to develop across Central areas of England. Whereas on Wednesday there is a more widespread risk of severe weather;

Tuesday 20th June:

Wednesday 21st June:

As you can see, as Tuesday's risk is fairly isolated, during Wednesday instability from the Atlantic will combined with the intense heat to trigger off some very lively storms, particularly in the morning and into early afternoon across Scotland and Northern Ireland, and then in the afternoon some isolated, slow moving corkers are possible across Northern England, North Wales and parts of the North Midlands as indicated on our warning map.

We are most concerned about Scotland and Northern Ireland where here rainfall totals in excess of 50mm could lead to flooding in places, whereas the risk further South in Northern England, North Wales and southwards into the Midlands is more for large hail, strong winds and also flooding. The risk of thunderstorms on Wednesday also extends Southwards into parts of SW England ie Wilshire, Somerset, and the South Midlands, due to the higher temps here the thunderstorms could be particularly intense. During Wednesday night most of the storms will fade but rumble on well into the evening in the North.

Storms by nature are hit and miss therefore it is impossible to guarantee that a certain area will be impacted by storms but you are urged to be aware of the situation and the likelihood of thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Turning Very Warm or Hot – Latest UK Weather Forecast

Very warm, locally hot, sunny and sultry just about sums up the weather for the Central and Southern quadrant of the British Isles for the next 5 days, before some big thunderstorms could move up from the channel, affecting parts of the country on Monday night (19th) and Tuesday to (20th). Admittedly fresher for Scotland and Northern Ireland...

The Heat.

Temperatures will stay at a consistent daytime 24-28 degrees Celsius for Southern and Central areas between Wed 14th and Mon 19th of June, consequently on Monday 19th June and into the morning of Tuesday 20th, there could be some prominent thunderstorms across England and Wales, just following the peak of the "heatwave". It will always be fresher for Scotland and Northern Ireland of course; however there will be some warm days, in particular Wednesday and Saturday.

The thunderstorms.

The real plume is expected on Monday, when some large thunderstorms could develop in the English Channel during the evening, and into Tuesday, we are currently monitoring this impending situation, that is a little uncertain as there is some disagreement in the forecast models.

The forecast:

Time to dust of the BBQ as fine, warm and dry weather is forecast to dominate for the next few days, especially across England and Wales. The warmth is set to peak on Monday the 19th of June, when temperatures could go over 30C, perhaps as high as 31 or 32C in a few Southern spots, however by this stage the risk of thunderstorms dramatically increases - the exact whereabouts of these will be firmed up on over the coming few days.

Taking things step by step, tomorrow, Wednesday is a glorious day for pretty much all of England and Wales however Scotland and Northern Ireland will be subject to more cloud and the odd spot of drizzle. Temperatures in the South starting to soar - 26C widely however 28C can't be ruled out perhaps. 18-22C for Northern areas of the British Isles.

Thursday is a windier day, still warm with a lot of sunshine for England and Wales but fresher, more comfortable at 23-24C. For Scotland, Northern Ireland and the North West a little more cloud, much fresher with the odd spot of drizzly rain from time to time.

Admittedly Friday may be a little cloudier on the whole for Central and Eastern England, with the South West getting the lions share of any sunny spells. Another warm day away from Western Scotland, here some showery rain and a cool 16C, elsewhere easily into the twenties with 24C possible in the South given good sunny spells.

Back into heat mode on Saturday and into the weekend. Three zones of weather for the weekend. Sunny spells & showers for Scot & Northern Ireland, breezy and pleasant at 18-20C. Sunny spells and very warm for Northern England & North Wales, 20-24C. Hot and sunny, humid for the Midlands, Southern and South Eastern England and most of Wales, temperatures typically 24 to 28C, possibly 29C in a few spots on Saturday.

Monday's weather has a high risk of being a very warm if not hot day for Central and Southern areas, 30-32C, 86-90F is very possible. There is also the risk of some large thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday morning, this is a looming risk and we will have more detail regarding these potential storms as the time becomes within shorter range.

 

Turning very warm again for some but for how long? Latest UK Weather

After the heat of last week, temperatures took a bit of dive however are expected to recover to "warm or even very warm" levels across Central and Eastern England and Wales tomorrow, and for the South East on Friday. However unfortunately across Scotland and Northern Ireland it will remain a good deal fresher, windier with some showers from time to time, before we all go cooler during the upcoming weekend... Detail..

Thursday sees early morning cloud quickly burning away across the mainland to give a warm, sunny day for just about all spots in England and Wales. However, Scotland, especially the West, and Northern Ireland will always be plagued by increased cloud amounts and some outbreaks of rain, this will gradually head South Eastwards across Scotland, affecting the borders and Irish sea coasts early on Friday. Temperatures may reach 79F, 26C across South East England tomorrow, 21-23 more typical, with a much fresher, 17C, in Scotland by much comparison.

Friday is another warm day, perhaps very warm for a time however by Friday the sun is getting oozed out of central England and limited to the South East, East Anglia and London. Further Northwest the signs of a change are clear, a fresher, however sunnier feel with a few showers into Scotland and Northern Ireland, 18C here. A band of rain, heavy at times will limit temperatures to just 14-16C for Northern England, Wales, South West England and later the midlands, however the SE as mentioned will manage to hold onto one more day of warmth, though this may trigger a few rouge thunderstorms.

Friday night, South East England, the rain arrives.

The weekend, for all areas, will be cooler, with showers around western coastal counties, perhaps merging to longer spells of rain across Western Scotland, Western Ireland etc. The further East you are, so for Eastern Scotland and Eastern England, there will be some sunny spells on offer through the weekend, however temps will be a few degrees down, it will feel notably fresher. Typically 16C, to 19C in the South East.

We head into the new working week with a cooler, fresher and generally more unsettled theme for most areas, however there will be a window of slightly warmer weather on Tue, Wed and Thu though this mostly limited to South East England, for example Thursday 8th June, looks mostly fair and quite warm in the South East, though from say the Midlands North, a mixed affair with some rain, and cooler temps.

Looking ahead into the weekend (10th - 12th June), and mid June / the following week, signs are for a continuation of the generally quite benign, average weather with some rain, some brightness, nothing exceptional (in terms of a heatwave, or very cold temps). A quick glance at what the team has in store on thoughts for the Summer:

June - average temperatures a greater risk than both a very warm or very cold June. A dry June looks very unlikely, precipitation is likely to be around the seasonal average, perhaps even a little wetter than normal in the far North West.

July - the "most decent" month of the summer will probably be placed here, some thunderstorms are likely as the low pressure responsible for June's cooler weather subsides, allowing warm winds to flow. Temperatures may reach 27C on a few occasions in the South.

August - Another "decent" month, temperatures like July coming out a few tenths of a degrees warmer than average, some notably cool spells in the North but equally hot phases in the South, these interspersed between hot and thundery breakdowns. Temps could scrape 30 degrees at times.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of the British Isles

As the expected "heatwave" arrives, attention now turns to the risk of thunderstorms, some severe, forecast to affect large portions of Central UK tomorrow. To find out if your area is at risk, access your area on the map. You can also see a thunderstorm warning risk map right here, thank you.




Temperatures today have peaked at 29.6C in Northern Scotland and a widespread 25 to 28C across the bulk of England and Wales. As the predicted thunderstorms arrive tomorrow morning across Western areas, they will be scattered in nature, before building further momentum tomorrow afternoon as the energy responsible for the storms heads Eastwards, some large thunderstorms are likely across Central and Eastern England, Northern England to. Northern Ireland and Scotland are likely to see thunderstorms to, however here temperatures will fall rather sharply on Saturday whereas England and Wales will keep much of the heat and humidity with temperatures once again threatening 30C, although probably not quite hitting it.

The forecast thunderstorms could dump up to 50mm of rain (2 inches) in some areas and therefore the met office have issued a severe weather warning for these storms. The worst affected areas at the moment we think are likely to be Western Scotland during tomorrow evening and also the Midlands, parts of North East England. However, this is not to say other areas wont experience the storms to.

Thunderstorms in general are quite tricky to forecast and can be hit and miss in nature, however we are expecting a "first batch" of storms tomorrow morning across the SW of England and Wales, before these are forecast to hit Central and Eastern areas through the afternoon as surface heating occurs.

If you live in South Eastern England, East Anglia etc, you can expect one more hot and sunny day before forecast rain with embedded thunder arrives through Sunday night and into Monday. In fact, the warmth and humidity will do its best to cling on here right up to the bank holiday, however it will become much fresher, and more unsettled across Central and Northern areas as early as tomorrow.

UK Warned of “Early Heatwave” Next Week with temps up to 30

The British Isles in on alert for an early start to the summer with temperatures rising to 30• Celsius, 86'F across southern counties of England by the later stages of the week.

Forecasters say "temperatures will gradually rise to a balmy 30C aross Southern counties of England close to the weekend and on Saturday. Elsewhere the mercury can be expected to reach the mid to high twenties with some thunderstorms arriving later".




To begin with, cloud will halt temperatures for Northern areas with some light rain, however as we progress through the week, especially from Wednesday on wards, the heat and sun will expand to virtually all areas of the UK"

Although official heatwave status may not be reached, it will certainly feel like it with the peak of the heat forecast on Friday and Saturday, with UV levels touching 8 in the South, (6-8 further North), with night time temperatures in the upper teens and that humid feel really building.

As the heatwave comes to an end next Sunday, some areas could see some pretty large thundery downpours with hail and of course lightning and thunder. 10-20mm could fall within a few hours in places, although due to the unsaturated ground this is not a cause for concern.

Cloud amounts will vary dramatically through the first half of the week before the almost unbroken sunshine arrives on Wednesday. Especially up North, here a little more cloud on Monday and Tuesday, perhaps some Western facing areas to, this expected to burn away though the week...

And.. It is stressed that the main plume of heat is not expected until Thursday and Friday and the start of the week only sees temperatures creeping up to a sweaty 25C, 77F, across Southern areas and 18-20 in the North; by Thursday that will have shot up to a balmy 30 degrees in the South, however more like twenty five Celsius in Scotland and Northern parts of the country.

 

Severe ThunderStorms Forecast: Latest Update

StormWatch is definitely on guard this weekend, Illinois, Montana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Iowa on watch for Saturday night and Sunday for flash flooding, lightning and isolated severe winds and damaging hail. People are advised to take precautions to prepare for the risk of these conditions within everyday life.





This squall of extremely heavy rain will be combined with gusty winds perhaps gusting in excess of 90mph in isolated instances, has the potential to cause severe disruption. During Saturday the squall will gradually trek Eastwards; affecting Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky and Indiana.

Warning Map, shows that swathe from Southern Indiana towards North East Texas expected to be impacted by localized tornadic activity, and other severe weather (hail, lightning, severe winds, flash flooding), within the next 48 hours:

As you can see, a swathe from Eastern Texas, Northwards through MO, AR, KN, TY, IO, IL, IN and gradually NE'wards extending towards PA, VA, although weakening as it does so.

The system has the potential to bring severe flooding with rainfall totals of 6" in a few places, with the focus turning to lightning, and isolated severe winds (Tornado risk) and damaging hail, especially though not exclusively during daylight hours.

As mentioned, the system will gradually trek Eastwards, affecting more western states during today and tomorrow, before the system steadily picks up some speed and affects more Eastern states, for example PA and WV, during Monday. The system will weaken considerably as it hits the East Coast, so not much in the way of severity expected here.

The system will be at it's strongest today and tomorrow across the more Western and Southern Central areas. Here are a list of areas in the "firing line" for the most severe impacts:

East/NE Texas

Eastern Oklahoma

Louisiana

Arkansas

Montana

Mississippi

Western TN

Western KY

Absolute Southern tip of IN, IL etc.

Of course if you are near to these areas, or are generally quite close by, count yourself in this risk and this is also not to say that other wider fetching areas are to experience bad conditions, just not quite at the level of those immediately mentioned.

Thunderstorms will impact a slightly larger area towards the East Coast and Southern Great Lakes on Monday however by then most of the intensity will be lost, though caution is still needed. As always, Be Safe!.

Is Summer On The Way? Latest 10 Day UK Weather Update

Is Summer finally on the way? Signs are that in a couple of weeks temperatures could scrape 30C across Southern areas of England and Wales (86 in Fahrenheit). After forecasters, including us at VeryWeather, have picked up on some longer range models predicting a Spanish Plume around this time. Of course the details are uncertain, however confidence of this little Spring heatwave is building.




After a rather cool and changeable mid April spell of weather for the British Isles thoughts are now turning towards the prospects of warmer weather, low pressure is set to bring a rather unsettled and cool bank holiday weekend with bands of wind and rain affecting most areas.

Through Tuesday and into Wednesday 3rd May conditions will improve for most areas with Continental air promising more settled conditions with some sunshine, with temperatures during the day ranging from 12 to 16C in a few spots, it should feel pleasant enough in some shelter, however progressing into Thursday and Friday, more particularly Friday, expect a return to rather unsettled conditions, with some outbreaks of rain for Eastern and North East England and Eastern Scotland, however by this stage Central and Western areas should escape with some brighter conditions.

Signs are that during the following weekend, the 6th and 7th of May, conditions will remain unsettled with rain spreading to most parts, temperatures by this stage hanging just around or slightly below the seasonal average, say 9-14C as a benchmark.

There are signs that past the 10th of May a slow return to something more Summery can be expected, although this is quite uncertain. High pressure evolving to the East during this period could introduce much warmer weather, especially from around the 15th of May, of course this is to be expected at this time of year, as we progress into the depths of Summer and away from convectional spring cyclonic activity.

As we progress into mid May, tentative signs suggest a very warm spell of weather is increasingly likely, with temperatures perhaps reaching dizzy heights of 29 or 30 degrees, which isn't all unusual for the time of year.