Storm Alert: FORECAST

A severe weather warning is in force for South East England and Southern parts of Greater London. A larger area, including Southern Counties and Coastal areas of England is also at risk.


See more info for your area on the Interactive Weather Map below.

During Sunday morning, a swathe of very strong winds (gusting up to 70mph), will affect these parts. Rain will also be an issue, 40 or 50mm (2") of rain could fall locally in the South, leading to increased river levels and a risk of flooding. Hill snow could also fall across the Northern fringe of the precipitation, across the North Midlands and North Wales above 250-300m, 1-3cm could fall, though this snow level gradually becoming confined to higher moors through the day:

Chances of a Snowy end to November?

FORECAST: Temperatures will recover this weekend across the British Isles with values returning to normal. However much of this week will be dominated by cold, showery and rather unsettled conditions with some hill snow in the North. Frosts will become limited to the far North by the weekend as milder air heads in.




However, we then look to the end of the month as signals are leaning towards another spell of cold weather, which would have significant snow potential.

A Snowfall Warning has been issued for parts of the UK for Tonight. Read that warning here.

Although we keep the risk of early frosts, the weather through the next 5 days or so will be significantly more unsettled than used to with bouts of wind and rain, no storms by any means however. This rain will fall as significant snow across higher parts of the North. The Westerly influence will gradually introduce milder conditions by the weekend with temperatures recovering to average or even a little milder than average temperatures in the South by the weekend, however much of the week will be cold up to around Friday.... Read More..

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We then look further ahead to the end of November. At the moment most medium range weather charts are highlighting a potential wintry spell, with high pressure to the North or West dragging in air from either the Arctic or Siberia, either or both will be very cold and wintry with a risk of snow across large parts of the UK. Confidence is always limited at this range, and the cold spell could equally be slightly sooner or later than currently projected, which is around the 25th of November for a return to colder than average conditions, with snowfall an added risk.

From theweatheroutlook, the decline to colder than average temperatures is evident as we progress towards the end of November. Questions are now turning towards a bitter end to the month with snow being the common feature..

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Significant Snow Forecast For Wednesday

To Access the Snow Alert for your area, use the map to see the warning.



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18:00 TUESDAY TO 06:00 WEDNESDAY

AREAS AFFECTED: SCOTLAND, NORTHERN ENGLAND, MIDLANDS

Areas strongly affected: Central/Eastern Scotland, Pennines.

Areas moderately affected: Elsewhere in Scotland, NE England, N & NE Midlands, England (North of the Wash).

Areas questionable: NW Midlands, NW England, East & West Midlands.

Heavy Snow will affect Scotland, especially the East, and the Pennine areas. Elsewhere in the North, significant accumulations are likely to be restricted to higher ground however there is a notable chance of snow to lower levels at times.

Higher routes in the North are likely to be severely impacted on Wednesday morning. Below 200m, the snow will be less significant however some will fall in places leading to more challenging travelling conditions than usual.

 

Risk of Significant Snow for NE UK On Tuesday Night.

A Cold mass of air is currently in place in the UK. During Tuesday evening, Atlantic moisture will try and displace the cold air mass (which will bring us a harsh, widespread frost on Monday night), and as it does so it could bring a period of significant snow, primarily to hills across North East UK. 

Here is a chart from our system showing the potential areas affected by the Snow. As you can see, Northern areas on higher ground are most likely to be affected, however a few flakes are possible to lower levels in the North:

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2-5cm of snow could fall widely across high ground stretching from the West Highlands of Scotland, through the Southern Uplands, into Durham and as far South as the Staffordshire moorlands. 

Across Western areas, the snow is more likely to fall as rain or sleet across low levels, the same can be said for the South.

However the further North East you are, areas such as Eastern Scotland and Durham could see a spell of falling snow on Wednesday morning for a time.

Snow in the UK is notoriously difficult to predict and the margin between wintry weather and a wet squib is usually extremely fine in the UK, therefore accuracy is limited, however we usually have a good idea about the areas at highest risk. Central Scotland, Southern Scotland, Northern England (especially the Pennines, Yorkshire and Northumberland), have a chance of waking upto wintry scenes on Wednesday morning. Higher level routes are likely to be impacted by this so take care if you travel over the Pennines on Wednesday morning, or the Scottish High ground.

The further West you are, so for Wales, Western Scotland, North Midlands and North West England, the more likely this snow is to be mainly confined to high ground, hillier areas. However for a time the snow could fall and settle across North Eastern England, parts of Lowland Scotland could also see a few flakes, however here it is unlikely to cause much in the way of travel disruption.

There are a few slight chances in the forecast that will ultimately alter exact areas predicted to be affected by the snowfall, however slight chances will allow snow to fall to lower levels as far South as the North Midlands, of course, this is a small risk however needs to be monitored.

 

Even Colder conditions arriving next weekend, how long will it last?

As winds switch into the East this weekend, temperatures will take another dive with regular night frosts making a return by Friday Night, bitterly cold Easterly winds and crisp days will feature. Although tonight remains frost-free, many areas will be affected by patchy rain. The weekend will have an increasingly wintry feel, with temperatures well below average, regular night frosts and the risk of fog developing. Showers in the East may even have a wintry element of sleet or wet Snow on ground above 350 metres in elevation.

This chart from the European Weather Model shows the core of the cold weather just to the East of the UK, brought on by a cold Easterly wind. Most areas will see an amplification of frost by the weekend and into next week with settled weather (bar the East Coasts, where here showers of rain, hail and sleet are likely) and a dry bright but crisp theme for Central and Western areas.

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Access all weather warnings here.

Right now UK temperatures are around 2.5C colder than average. Conditions are now turning increasingly unsettled from the North with showery rain developing across Scotland and Northern Ireland through Thursday night as a small area of low pressure heads South, although it will introduce a bitter Easterly wind this weekend, however any wintry precipitation is likely to be broadly limited to Northern hills at this stage.

Tonight: A generally cloudier night tonight for most areas with patchy rain keeping temperatures well above freezing. For tomorrow, Friday, conditions will start of cloudy however will become bright but cold for the majority bar parts of Scotland and NW England, here cloud and rain is still possible.

However, temperatures will take another dive this weekend as even colder air spreads in from the East, providing "bitter" feeling days, however sunshine will become plentiful for the West. Further East, showers are likely to develop. The colder air is likely to persist well into next week with a roar, strong Easterly by Monday. Frost will become the norm overnight from Friday Night and could become quite harsh in places by mid week.

Outlook: 10th-15th November:

There remains uncertainty in the medium range outlook however a NW/SE split seems probable. The North West of the UK seems prone to more unsettled Atlantic dominated conditions however the South and East could hold onto something cooler, with night frosts and fog and settled conditions. At times, the battle between milder westerly winds and colder Easterly winds will give a risk of heavy rainfall, which could be wintry.

15th November+

Confidence in the long range outlook diminishes however there is a risk that most areas could progress into cooler than average conditions once again and by this stage in the year, wintry precipitation may become part of the puzzle.

 

Weak Polar Vortex and Record Low Sea Ice could create a HARSH WINTER

A phenomenally weak Polar Vortex could stir the atmosphere in ways resulting in potentially harsh winter spells for parts of the Northern Hemisphere this winter, here are our winter forecasts:

UK Winter Forecast. USA/Canada Winter Forecast.

The Polar Vortex, could it actually trigger a severe winter?

2016-2017. The weak Polar Vortex is responsible for a very warm October in North America and a very dry Autumn in the UK. It is brought on by the most hesitant Autumnal Arctic sea ice ReFreeze on record. There is a chance that this will amplify weather patterns usually responsible for harsh winter conditions in the UK and parts of North America.



Strengthening of the Polar Vortex usually brings Wet & Windy weather for the UK and Potent Nor'Easters for the USA. But this year, something very different is happening and it is alarming forecasters.

Although long range forecasts are not set in stone, for certain parts of the Hemisphere this could mean an unforgiving winter, read on...

Image: Snow. although rare, given the right atmospheric conditions snow in the UK can be very disruptive. The US are more adept at dealing with significant Snow:

SNOWLThe Polar Vortex?

We rely on a Strong Polar Vortex to provide stormy winters across the UK. However, a weak vortex can result in this pattern being blocked, and the result can be quite interesting, with SnowFall being high on the list with Easterly winds.. Read our full UK Winter Forecast Here.

A HUGE area of cold temperatures, usually keeps the Cold "Locked" in the Arctic, but this year weak winds around the Pole could result in more of this cold sinking into prone areas. For the US, it is more complicated.... Severe winter weather can be experienced during both strong and weak states of the vortex. Read the full USA/Canada winter forecast Here.

Potent Winter Weather can occur in both a weak AND a strong Polar Vortex.

The Polar Vortex, a strong one brings severe cold spells for North America and stormy winter for West Europe. However a weakening can cause cold spells for both land masses.

 

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The SUN.

It is no surprise that the sun influences our weather, however it is more complicated than that...

The Sun's typical 11 year cycle called the Solar Cycle goes through a longer 160 year cycle which influences the strength of these individual cycles. At this time in 2016, we are on the cusp of moderate/ weak solar activity. The dive to very weak activity by 2018/19/20 could promote a harsh, bitter winter for the UK, for example similar to 2010.

Before now and this time however, we are likely to experience classic variation of winters. It is likely that either this Winter 2016/17 or next winter 2017/18 will host severe spells for the UK.

Read more information on both the Polar Vortex and Solar Activity here.

UK Week Ahead Forecast – Temperatures Taking a Significant Dive

North Westerly winds will bring colder conditions for all areas this week.

After a remarkably mild end to October, temperatures will return to typical late Autumn values for all areas by Wednesday with the arrival of night frosts and generally cooler feeling days. By the weekend a bitter Easterly wind will develop giving the potential for heavy rain for Central UK and this wind may also deposit some hill snow in the North.

View UK Weather Alerts Here.

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Tuesday will progressively become cooler in the North with a fresh wind developing, however sunny for most. The South will hold onto the last of the milder weather with cloud present here, having started as morning fog. Winds will develop through the day decreasing any frost risk.

Wednesday will start with a widespread light ground frost for inland areas which will not be confined to the Countryside. In rural areas, -1/2C is possible with 0-3C for cities generally. Temperatures will be quite slow to rise however will peak at a comfortable 7-12C. Cloud amounts will vary however will be greatest across Eastern zones.

Another light ground frost with a rural air frost on Thursday. A generally cloudier day with wind and rain arriving in Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Another chilly day with temperatures of 8-10C.

Friday restricts the frost risk to Northern areas as the South sees a generally cloudy day with sunny spells in the North.

Cloud and rain may develop in the South on Friday however the North will be clear with coastal showers and a cold feel.

Saturday will feel very cold, a bitter Easterly wind driving heavy rain into Southern areas. A little more decent in the North but even here a chilly feel. Some of this rain could fall as hill snow above around 1,000ft in Scotland on Sunday night/ Monday. A progressive return to frosts is likely during the early part of next week.

During the middle part of next week, a brief return to milder Westerly based weather is likely.

 

 

Non-Existent Polar Vortex Could Mean Potentially Harsh Winter Forecast

Normally the Polar Vortex keeps Bitter Arctic Air tightly held over the North Pole, however this year this system will be much weaker than normal, providing plenty of opportunity for Severer than normal Cold Spells to develop. Read on...

Read Our Full Winter Weather Forecast Including a Winter Weather Map Right Here

The Polar Vortex

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Arctic Sea Ice at an ALL TIME Low for November.

Fueling a weak polar vortex, meaning that the cold will easily spill off the pole this year, giving some potential severe spells, however there are many other factors involved.

SunSpot Count:

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Low Sunspot numbers are known to fuel colder weather because this condition of the sun weakens the jet stream and polar vortex further. This year, sunspot count will be fairly low, however not low enough to ensure the bitterness. Any spike in activity could lead to a more excited hadley cell and create a stronger jet stream, which is bad news for the US because some spikes are predicted this winter, meaning the polar vortex could spin right off into the land mass.

For the UK, the opposite is true, spikes in solar activity would only fuel the typical Westerly airflow, however the conditions this Winter will be a mixture of the two, meaning both areas are likely to see some very harsh cold snaps this Winter, certainly more so than the Super El Nino driven 2015/16.

 

Polar Vortex is in an exceptionally weak state, fueling any Forecast Bitter Winter spells

 

Normally, average and rapid expansion of the Arctic sea ice helps trigger a strong region of stagnant cold around the Arctic Circle. This year, Arctic Sea Ice has been at a record all time low as it attempts to expand and cover larger regions of the Arctic. As a result, the Polar Vortex which usually keeps the cold locked over the pole, has become unusually as we enter the latter stages of Autumn. This means that cold air will find it easier to slip off the pole this Winter. Potentially giving some quite harsh foreasted Winter Weather for the United States and the UK.

What could this mean for Winter

A weak polar vortex generates high amounts of mid latitude instability and variation against the norm. It is much easier for "sections" of the Polar Vortex to head South into populated areas (such as the UK and US), during the Winter months. This means that there is a higher probability of a cold winter in these areas compared to recent years.

Exceptionally low Arctic Sea Ice is partly to blame, the ice fuels the production of cold air over the pole and this circulation keeps it tight, a weaker polar vortex means more cold air is shunted Southwards, off the pole bringing bitterly cold spells of cold winter weather further South. This however, does not guarantee a bitter winter for these areas as many other factors are at play.

UK – Colder Weather As North Westerly Wind Arrives Next Week

The current mild weather is not forecast to last, throughout much of next week (the exception being Monday), expect colder than average conditions with an abundance of night time frosts, fog (which could potentially be a hazard), and cold days. Winds will be fairly light, so with little rain in the forecast the dry theme is to continue.

As seen on the temperature graph below, temperatures will be taking a distinct drop from Tuesday. During the week, night time frosts and fog could become quite extensive, however the dry theme will continue. There is even the potential for "freezing fog", in places overnight, especially later in the week once the initial Northerly calms. As seen, the colder temperatures last for quite some time, the generally cool, frosty and crisp weather will last around 3 days. (2nd-6th Nov)

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Thereafter, a slightly less cool Westerly airflow will introduce, slightly less cold temperatures probably decreasing fog/frost risk overnight between the 5th and the 7th, however the generally dry theme is likely to continue, the exception being Western fringes of the UK, here cloud and rain will threaten as the colder spell breaks down. However, from around the 7th of November, there is the potential for another burst of colder air. This time, more moisture will be involved meaning there could be a return to unsettled conditions.

 

As temperatures will be cool, there is a risk that some of this precipitation will fall as sleet or wet snow on high ground for the North Pennines and Highlands of Scotland, however to lower levels, this will be rain showers.

There is high uncertainty in the details of the forecast after around the 10 day mark. Please stay tuned for further information, however there is around 60% confidence of another, slightly more potent (not to say that the first shot was potent, it will be fairly benign), cold shot developing. As high pressure retrogresses towards Greenland, we could set ourselves up for a slightly longer lasting spell of colder weather around mid November. Various medium range computer models are now suggesting this outcome as possible.

Frosted leaf

FORECAST:

SATURDAY: Dry and fine weather for all. However sunshine will be limited to the far South East where even here intermittent. Light winds.

SUNDAY: A repeat performance. Warmer than average temperatures, pleasant. Sunny spells for the South however generally cloudy elsewhere.

MONDAY: Thick cloud and heavy rain isolated to Western Scotland will turn lighter and head East across Scotland. Elsewhere, very dry. Warm for all however becoming slightly colder in Scotland.

TUESDAY: Notably cooler for all with a strengthening wind across Northern Coastal areas. A ground frost possible for inland Scotland. Sunshine generally isolated to the North as clearer, less humid fresher air arrives. Still hanging onto the last of the pleasant weather further South.

WEDNESDAY: Becoming much colder for all. A widespread ground frost and given rurality, air frost. Temperatures struggling to reach 10C for all areas. Colder still further North.

The dry, crisp and settled theme will continue through the week. It is now looking like the more unsettled conditions will arrive on bonfire night, the arrival of North Westerly winds promising chilly and less settled conditions.

This "blip" of less settled conditions looks less dominant going later into the month. By the 10th of November, although the North some areas will remain wet, many areas will become crisp and perhaps colder once again.

 

Colder Spell Arriving in November

As we enter November, temperatures are expected to make a notable drop, as winds track into the North East. Night time frosts and fog will make an appearance, making it feel very seasonable.

For a detailed 10 day outlook, head here.

The fog could be disruptive in places. Although day time highs will be around the seasonal average, in inland areas night time temperatures will be significantly below due to the high pressure, promising crisp even "wintry" feeling days. More cloud and light rain threatens the North East of the UK during this time, which means here the dry theme may be disrupted from time to time. However, this week sees very mild temperatures for the time of year, before the cooler flow arrives.

During the coming week, the dry and mild theme will continue, however you will be lucky to find long lasting sunshine away from Southern areas.

After Halloween, the cooling theme will begin, with temperatures slowly drifting to around or a tad below average, especially during nights. With frost, fog and "crispy" days all in the outlook.

The North of the UK will always be more exposed to a more Polar Maritime/ Maritime Atlantic feed, developing showers here. Which are unlikely to be wintry away from high ground, however expect further tuning of details in the forecast.

Night time frosts will become the norm for the North of the UK, with fog a risk everywhere:

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Low pressure will at times bring less stable air, especially around bonfire night, providing a cold, wet night. Showers that fall may have a slight wintry element, especially on high ground, however we are not expecting anything for the mainland.

The first shot of cool/cold air (with temperatures being around 2C colder than average), is not expected to be very potent. However there is around a 55% chance that the high pressure will become more extensive across Greenland allowing steadily colder air to flood into the UK, developing the risk of wintry weather. The risk will be continually monitored on the website.

There is the possibility that winds could progressively become more North Easterly, drawing in more potent cold air masses, if this occurs then we would inevitably have to look at wintry potential. However for now, this is a little still a while out in meteorologic terms.

It is of course, early in the season and if this set up was to repeat it self in the winter months, then we would find ourselves painting a fairly different story.

Access our winter forecast.