Warm spell of weather incoming this week

An area of high pressure is forecast to give unusually mild and dry conditions for the bulk of the UK this week. The 1035mb area of high pressure centred over the South of the UK will draw up air from the Mediterranean. The warmth will peak on Friday and Saturday, with temperatures of 18C (64f), forecast across parts of Southern England.

Thursday: A rather gloomy morning for the North with light, but patchy rain, interspersed with sunny spells for Eastern Scotland and NE England. Sunny skies ever present for the South, however during the day cloud amounts will increase. The North will suffer from anticyclonic gloom, and at times light rain; this heavy for Western Scotland.  Winds will be a very notable feature of the day, more so for Northern areas, here gusts of 50mph, 80kmh are likely on the Coast and on high ground. Temperatures similar to today, at around 14-16C for the South, 11-13 for the North.

 

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Friday: Any patchy light rain sinking South into Northern England and becoming a non existent feature of the day. High pressure becoming increasingly dominant, meaning much lighter winds than Thursday. Stubborn cloud will keep temperatures buried in single figures for the North. For much of England and Wales, temperatures will climb to around 16 or 17C, 62F. With lights winds, it should feel pleasant.

Weekend

Saturday: Clear skies promises a colder morning for most. With sunny spells persisting. Mild or very warm. 18 or 19C (65f) is possible for Southern areas. Winds remaining light which will mean another chilly night, with a rural frost in some Northern parts of England on Sunday.

Sunday: Brisker Westerly winds bringing increases cloud amounts for Western fringes of England, Wales and Ireland. However inland, good lengthy sunny spells are forecast, more so East of the Pennines however they will form elsewhere, to give temperatures that are warmer than the seasonal average. Winds remaining light or very light, adding to the "warm feel"

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Halloween:

Nothing scary about the weather. Perfect weather for the evening, light winds and feeling mid, reflective of the very mild dry, calm day. However, it will be a gloomier day for most.

1st November to 3rd of November:

It will remain mild for the South of the UK. However there is some evidence that the North of the UK will see a decline in temperatures with frosts making a return. Sunny spells still in the outlook for the South, however cloud and Coastal showers will affect Northern areas. Central areas will see a mixture of the two, sunny with light rain showers from time to time

4th of November to 8th of November:

The weather may turn notably more unsettled with areas of moderate rain and windier conditions than expected in the short term outlook, however the conditions will not be disruptive. Temperatures will take a dive due to the lack of sunshine meaning a chilly and perhaps less dry bonfire, however there is a risk that the air mass will take a sudden drop in temperature, making conditions feel raw at times.

9th November to 16th of November:

Confidence in the long range outlook diminishes. However with high pressure staying close by, don't expect any overly wet conditions. With low pressure to the NE, winds could come from a North Westerly direction, meaning temperatures return to the seasonal average, or dip a little below, giving a risk of night frosts.

A Chill in the Air – Mid Week for New York & New England.

NORTHERLY WINDS. An area of low pressure will reduce temperatures to just 35-45'F for NY State and New England on Wednesday. Overnight on both Tuesday & Wednesday night, INLAND, temperatures will fall sufficiently for frosts to form and therefore an ice risk. No snowfall to talk about, however above 1,000Ft, isolated flurries on Wednesday. Temperatures return to normal values on Thursday.

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Temperatures will slowly recover for the remainder of the week.

Frosts will become limited to inland areas.

 

Ready to read our WINTER 2016-2017 FORECAST?

UK 10 Day Weather Outlook

OVERVIEW: Exceptionally dry weather for this stage of Autumn. Winds switching to the South West this week developing milder than average conditions across more notably the South. However, as we start next week, temperatures may little dip, as the weather becomes more unsettled.

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TUESDAY: a notably chilly morning, with rural frost an element for Scotland and the far North of England. Sunshine gradually eroding from the West, keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland rather dull, however sunny spells dissipating further East. Feeling very pleasant for Southern areas, as temperatures begin to rise. Cloud will become very extensive during the overnight period, promising frost free conditions, winds strengthening in the North.

WEDNESDAY: High pressure building, maintaining the dry and settled weather, especially for England and Wales, here temperatures will approach or hit 15C in many places. Less in the way of Sunshine for the North of the UK, cloud and rather strong winds will offer a less pleasant day here. Frost free.

THURSDAY: The Westerly air flow becoming quite strong, bringing a very breezy day for Northern England northwards, with overcast skies. A weather front will bring outbreaks of rain for Western Scotland, and cloud amounts fairly high even as far South as the South East. However, Southern Coastal Counties should hold onto decent enough sunny spells. Temperatures peaking at 13-16C for England & Wales, around 10C in the North of the UK.

FRIDAY: Any rainfall will diminish, mainly dry. Becoming cooler for the far North as North Westerly winds set in, struggling to reach 10C in Scotland. Partly cloudy conditions with Southerly winds providing much milder than average conditions for Central and Southern UK: a really pleasant day with very light winds. 16C (61f), quite widely Birmingham South.

SATURDAY: A generally fresher morning than experienced on Friday. Mild or even "warm" Southerly winds will introduce cloud for most areas, however sunny spells are likely to the East of high ground (Yorkshire, Aberdeenshire, etc). Notably warmer for all areas, 12 or 13C in the North. Soaring to 18C, across some pockets of Southern England, however 16C (61F), will be more common.

SUNDAY: A laden weather front providing increased cloud amounts for Northern England and Northern Ireland. Either side of this front (Scotland, South etc), sunny spells. Another very mild day, with temperatures around 4C above average. The first signs of a change however, for Northern Scotland, as the risk of showers increases, and slightly cooler conditions head in. Temperatures will return to average on Monday, however it will remain dry away from the odd Coastal shower.

OUTLOOK: 31st October - 3rd November.

During the final day of October, the positioning of high pressure is set to weaken considerably, allowing North Westerly winds to bring a slight drop in temperatures, and increase the risk of an unsettled October, especially for Western areas. There is a slight chance that winds could veer into the North to start November, however at this stage this is only a chance. Thank you for reading.

UK Winter 2016/17 Weather Forecast

UK Winter Forecast: 

 

December: Displaced Polar Vortex generating high volume of high pressure, resulting in temperatures close to or slightly below the seasonal average. High pressure dominating across Northern areas, leading to generally dry, frosty and cold conditions. The Atlantic always posing a threat of milder weather (fought with a snow risk across Central areas), however weaker than recent years; resulting in drier than average conditions. Any precipitation that does fall is likely to pose a wintry threat, especially later in the month.

January: A Colder, Wetter and Wintrier Month.

January is likely to be dominated by low pressure, bringing cold North Westerly winds, wintry showers and generally fairly wet weather for many areas. At times, winds will rotate to the NE as high pressure builds over Iceland, providing chilly Easterly winds, which increases risk of disruptive weather. Temperature: At or Slightly Below average. Precipitation: Slightly Above Average.

February - Very Uncertain, chances of dominant blocking.

In weather forecasting, long range forecasts are always experimental. However signs are that blocking could become even more dominant this month, giving drier weather than experienced earlier in the winter.

 

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The United Kingdom is positioned on the boundary of major air masses, these air masses interact with each other in a volatile sense, therefore it is difficult to predict long range weather. Further updates will be provided, however a combination of La Nina (jet stream weakening), (and the jet stream provides usual "wet and windy" weather), lower solar activity (sunspot numbers), is causing the polar vortex (an area of very cold air over the pole), to be displaced, this means that for Winter 2016/17, there is a higher risk of cold air sinking south and affecting mid latitude areas.

The jet stream will still have some strength, and is still likely to poise a threat, meaning there will be "cold spells" this winter, and in January, these could be significant. Please stay tuned for further updates, the weather team.

What are the chances of an early cold spell in November?

As we progress into November (from around the 3rd), high pressure will become the dominating feature, and this may allow temperatures to take a dip, with the arrival of frost, fog and generally chilly conditions thanks to a Siberian air mass fringing into the UK.

During the final week of October, a grinding, slow lift in temperatures will affect the UK. 18C, 64F, is possible across Southern Counties on Thursday, with 12-16C(up to 61F) being more typical elsewhere. However, thereafter, the area of high pressure that will give us settled conditions, is forecast to head toward Greenland.

 

This could realign the wind direction back to the North East, and provide the scope for much cooler conditions. Night frosts, fog and rain showers are all a theme of the early November forecast. Due to the Easterly wind, rain is more likely across Eastern areas, with sunny spells in the West, and overnight frosts.

Of course, this forecast has moderate confidence, and I'd suggest staying tuned for further updates.

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23rd-28th October:

Slow rise in temperatures, overnight frosts for the first half of the period in Scotland and perhaps rural Wales/ Northern Ireland dying out.

Drizzly rain in the South on Monday dying out to give very dry, frost free conditions for the first half of the week, before temperatures begin to soar mid week. 20C is possible somewhere in the South of England on Friday.

28th October, Halloween & up to the 2nd of November:

Temperatures very slowly returning to normal. Wind becoming very light, with a low frost risk.

By Tuesday 1st November, there is a good chance that temperatures will be at or below the seasonal average, with rain showers across Eastern Counties.

2nd November - 5th November:

Slow progression into cool, settled and blocked (Atlantic) conditions providing nice, crisp Autumn weather. Temperatures around or slightly below the seasonal average. With a risk of frost, in the Countryside. This risk growing daily.

Weather Prediction for the week ahead – staying dry.

OUTLOOK:

High pressure remaining in charge giving dry conditions with sporadic outbreaks of rain in the South on Sunday night and Monday.

Becoming significantly warmer in the South as we head through next week, however it will bring increased cloud amounts.

FROST:

Low frost risk for all apart from rural Scotland during all nights apart from Friday night, where frost is possible as far South as North Wales.

SATURDAY: A frost risk ever prevalent across rural Scotland and Wales. Higher amounts of Autumn sunshine than experienced today, especially across the mainland. Very dry conditions for everyone with increased cloud only for Central and Northern Scotland. Winds tracking into the East so feeling increasingly chilly with maximums of 5/6C for the North and up to 12C for London/SE.

SUNDAY: A Strengthening Easterly wind will give a gloomy day for some Eastern coastal counties, however further West promises greater sunshine. Again, a chilly feel in the wind. Less of a frost risk, however a notably cold day.

Southern areas of England will be exposed to cloud and potentially heavy rain during the evening.

MONDAY: Sporadic outbreaks of light rain heading North and fizzling out to give sunny spells throughout most of the day, Southerly winds by now will provide milder conditions for Southern areas.

However, Scotland and NI will hold onto the chilly air mass and see a frost risk early and late.

TUESDAY: Sporadic light rain dying a death across parts of Northern England however could present a drizzly feature through the day. A day of very light static winds and cool air, in the countryside frost could form as far South as the Pennines with temperatures widely touching 0C across Central Scotland. Cloud amounts will greatly increase from the West during the day with the South East holding onto the best of the sunshine. Temperatures rising slightly for all, however the gradual increase through the early part of the week will be painfully slow.

WEDNESDAY: Much milder Westerly winds bringing scattered clouds and increased temperatures for pretty much the whole of the UK. Temperatures may reach 16C, 61F across Southern areas of England, however sunshine may be sporadic in general. More cloud in general for Central and Northern areas, with a fresh and at times notable Westerly wind. Rain for the far North.

THURSDAY: Rain becoming very light or no existent in the North and dry elsewhere with varying cloud amounts, a mild day with temperatures up to 16C in the South with some sunshine, but also some fog possible in the far South which should clear by mid morning. Winds again, notable or breezy with gusts up to 25/30mph given exposure to the wind. Little frost risk.

Outlook: More high pressure and dry weather for the remainder of the month. A dry start to November is likely.

United States, Winter 2016/2017 Prognosis: BRUTAL Winter Ahead?

In CANADA, please access your forecast right here. 

TEMPERATURE: -COLD for NE, AVG for Central, +WARMER than avg for W/SW.

SNOWFALL: see by state snowfall predictions below, a Snowier than avg. one is expected in the NE with emphasis on early Feb snow storms being more potent!

RAINFALL: Heavy Rain SOUTH EAST. Wet in general SOUTH. Dry West, Dry North, Dry Mid West. WET MID ATLANTIC. SNOWY NE.

winter 2016/2017 in picture:



OUR WINTER 2016-17 FORECAST MAP IS IN PLACE BELOW:

view big version here

Forecast signs suggest that the upcoming winter will host more developments of Nor'easters and snow storms for the NE of the states. Typical snow values (average) are likely to be exceeded by around 115-120% for most areas.

WARNING: Long Range Forecasts are experimental, although they have some accuracy, we do not guarantee 100% accuracy like in short term weather, thank you.

LA NINA:

La Nina (colder than average sea surface temperatures for the Central Pacific), is correlated with a stronger Polar jet stream helping to provide more snow systems and potentially blizzards for the North East. The Mid Atlantic will experience higher than normal precipitation in this pattern, however a section of South PA/NY may experience very high snowfall totals, due to the mixing of air masses. To the South of this area, snowfall totals are not expected to by dramatic, however further North they could well be.

ARCTIC SEA ICE ON A DEATH SPIRAL:

As of 27th October, sea ice on the Arctic is at the lowest on record, meaning that high pressure is also likely to be a dominant player in the winter months. We can expect cold making it's way further South than typical, however combined with the warm winds for the Mid States provided by La Nina, Central areas could well see 110-115% of normal precipitation, including snow.

 

QBO (quasi biennial oscillation):

In it's Westerly phase, the QBO is supportive of a stronger polar jet stream and increased snowfall totals for the NE. The result of a Westerly QBO is a stronger Winter time Polar Vortex, however this year, the Polar Vortex is showing signs of weakening, resulting in slower moving areas of low pressure. As a result, any snow systems that form may be very slow moving and dump large amounts of snow in relatively compact areas. Lake effect snow could be on the rise as a result.

The Central North, areas close to the border will see a higher chance of severe ice systems for winter 2016/2017. Due to the weak Atlantic Jet stream, which (a strong Atlantic jet) usually helps pull blizzards away from the US, this winter's jet stream is likely to be weaker due to low sunspot output.

This means, snow systems could hang around for some time, and give 1-2ft" at a time for states such as parts of PA & NY. For Florida & the South in general, a cool to near normal winter is expected with a higher rate of frost due to higher pressure, however above average precipitation is possible in the SE. For the SW, it is likely to be somewhat drier.

Thank you for tuning into our winter forecast, this shall be updated daily.

Weak Polar Vortex could promise Snow for Winter 2016-17?

The POLAR VORTEX drives winter weather across the Northern hemisphere. Every Autumn, reducing temperatures allows air above the Arctic to become as cold as -100'C (-148F), and in turn this allows the jet stream to gain momentum, speed and danger. The JET STREAM is what gives the UK wet and windy weather during winter.

However, a weakening of the polar vortex will in turn weaken the jet stream. This reduces the typical mild westerly winds and allows Northerly and Easterly winds to push cold, usually snow laden air into the UK, giving us seasonably cold and snowy conditions.

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Something different is happening with the polar vortex this year. Arctic sea expansion has been extremely slow to start, meaning less cold temperatures over the Arctic. This has in turn lead to a much weaker polar vortex for Autumn 2016. Meaning the absence of typical mild, wet and windy weather. Instead, we have had benign, relatively dry weather.

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Will this affect Winter 2016?

The likelihood that it will affect winter 2016 is not measurable. Many other factors come into play when determining a forecast. However, it is possible that if we see a continuation of low Arctic sea ice, and high pressure blocking, the weather systems could realign during the winter months to provide colder than average conditions across the UK, especially later in the winter when solar activity drops to levels supportive of snowfall in the UK.

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weather forecast for the week ahead – UK

SUNDAY - Becoming breezy if not windy for the South Coast, taking the edge off the temperature however killing frost risk, away from Scotland where winds will be light. Once again, increased cloud cover for Coastal areas, more particularly Eastern Scotland and Northumberland, dry inland and perhaps longer sunny spells. Temperatures in the order of 8C to perhaps 13C for Southern Coastal Counties.

MONDAY - High pressure still in charge, however by now isobars opening up so perhaps lighter winds by then. Frost in rural locations. Cloud amounts will vary however once again DRY for all, with sunshine most dominant for Western and Central areas. Both Southern England and Eastern Scotland, will suffer from perpetual cloud. Pleasant temperatures away from the light Easterly wind.

TUESDAY - winds becoming very light, which means once again we have a frost risk for rural areas of the North. Another very dry, calm day with sunshine promised for inland areas. A little cloud here and there, especially areas that had it on Monday. Temperatures around or if not a little below average.

further ahead, likelihood* of continuation of dry conditions before a brief breakdown into unsettled conditions occurs.

Is a Colder Winter on the Horizon?

Long range forecast variables are currently in a more suited position for high pressure to be placed over the UK.

These variables aren't set to change soon, therefore we can expect a continuation of high pressure. The position of the high will determine the wind direction and weather type across the UK.

 

The polar vortex gains strength around November to December, which in turn powers the jet stream. However indications suggest that blocking is likely to continue into the winter months.

At the moment, high pressure is set to become even more prevalent by November, however in a slightly weaker position, meaning these relativily "dry", settled and chilly conditions will continue.

However, if this setup persists into later months which indications are it will, then we could potentially see the development of long fetch Easterly winds and production of snowfall as a by now slightly stronger jet stream interacts with the flow.

The combination of lower solar activity and less potent ENSO (Pacific Sea Temps), will ultimately encourage this pattern to emerge, however confidence is only around 60% at this stage. Indications are will will experience at least an Average winter with the most snowfall since 2012/13.