Is a Colder Winter on the Horizon?

Long range forecast variables are currently in a more suited position for high pressure to be placed over the UK.

These variables aren't set to change soon, therefore we can expect a continuation of high pressure. The position of the high will determine the wind direction and weather type across the UK.

 

The polar vortex gains strength around November to December, which in turn powers the jet stream. However indications suggest that blocking is likely to continue into the winter months.

At the moment, high pressure is set to become even more prevalent by November, however in a slightly weaker position, meaning these relativily "dry", settled and chilly conditions will continue.

However, if this setup persists into later months which indications are it will, then we could potentially see the development of long fetch Easterly winds and production of snowfall as a by now slightly stronger jet stream interacts with the flow.

The combination of lower solar activity and less potent ENSO (Pacific Sea Temps), will ultimately encourage this pattern to emerge, however confidence is only around 60% at this stage. Indications are will will experience at least an Average winter with the most snowfall since 2012/13.