The weather turns a tad quiet on Saturday with showers becoming more isolated, however as a weather front bumps into the cold air through Sunday, the risk grows of some significant in places heavy snow. The weather front itself is of Atlantic origin with a fair bit on moisture on it, however as it bumps into the cold air it will create a heightened risk of disruptive snow on Sunday.
At ground level the air will still be bitterly cold, with the Arctic air in place.
However higher up in the atmosphere, warmer (still cold enough for snow at that level!) air will cross over the cold air. Usually, milder air at the surface will melt the snow as it falls through the air and turn it back to rain. However the cold Arctic air will mean that this process is less likely, and the snow will remain and snow, potentially bringing a fairly hefty, disruptive few hours of snow on Sunday.
Before Sunday’s snow risk, widespread snow showers are likely in the north and west on Friday
Exactly where will the snow fall?
It’s still too far out to be certain on where the snow will fall, exactly when and how much there will be – as well as who will get the heaviest of snow. Computer models are creating many different scenarios that are possible on Sunday.
Scenario 1 – the weather front heads in on a southern track, meaning even the south comes into line with a risk of snow, which has the potential to be disruptive, – however more northern parts of England will remain dry.
Scenario 2 – the weather front heads in across the Midlands & northern England & Scotland/Northern Ireland meaning rain will fall in the south and snow is likely from the Midlands northwards.
Scenario 3 – the weather front could head in on an angle either too far north or too far south to produce snow. If it heads in too far north, a transient light dose of snow is likely with a switch to rain through the day. The later, means any snow will be confined to the south coast of England.
Which scenario is most likely? Well – its simply too far out to say. However, I’d certainly note Sunday as a day which could be quite disruptive in terms of Snow across many parts. Especially, the Midlands, northern and eastern parts of Wales and the North of England, however, that current snow risk could be positioned a little further north or South. A small change in the track of the small area of low pressure that is providing the snow risk will tremendously change the areas at risk of significant snow
It’s also worth nothing that a change in the intensity of the jet stream could push the snow risk into Saturday, or equally extent it into Monday.
However, the case at which a warm front bumps into the cold air is one that can be quite disruptive in the country, so its definitely worth keeping a very close eye.