UK Winter 2017-18 Early Predictions

The closest we can get to an accurate long range weather forecast is stating probabilities. With this in mind, we must realize that there’s no guarantee that the one with the highest chance will be the one that happens. So here we go, just some early thoughts based on analogues of past years that have had a similar “set up” in the higher atmosphere and oceans.

There’s no particular signal that shouts “cold” or “mild” this year. It’s still too early to release an official prediction as other factors that are yet to develop, have yet to unfold. A weak La Nina (cold central Pacific), combined with an easterly atmospheric river and “decreasing” solar activity, generally produced near normal winters with a strong variation of cold and mild, however markedly many were often wetter than average, with above average rainfall and a strong jet stream.

Therefore we can not be confident about this year’s winter weather, however a swing from the very dry pattern last winter to something with higher precipitationĀ levels and perhapsĀ more pronounced cold & snowy spells from the Arctic seems probable. We’re swinging away from the “very cold” and “very snowy” (think 2010) side right now (until at least 2020, when brutal winters should return)..