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OVERVIEW: Potentially HARSH winter in the NE. Dry & warm for the SW. DRY & COOL for the SE. La Nina cranking up Polar Jet giving a wet, snowier than typical NE, View video forecast below. Central areas will see a typical winter, nothing extraordinary here. Updated 10.27.16, includes more information. Our map now includes a color key.
OUR WINTER 2016-17 FORECAST MAP IS IN PLACE BELOW:
Winter 2016/2017 Video Forecast (Play to Watch)
Forecast signs suggest that the upcoming winter will host more developments of Nor'easters and snow storms for the NE of the states. Typical snow values (average) are likely to be exceeded by around 115-120% for most areas.
WARNING: Long Range Forecasts are experimental, although they have some accuracy, we do not guarantee 100% accuracy like in short term weather, thank you.
La Nina (colder than average sea surface temperatures for the Central Pacific), is correlated with a stronger Polar jet stream helping to provide more snow systems and potentially blizzards for the North East. The Mid Atlantic will experience higher than normal precipitation in this pattern, however a section of South PA/NY may experience very high snowfall totals, due to the mixing of air masses. To the South of this area, snowfall totals are not expected to by dramatic, however further North they could well be.
ARCTIC SEA ICE ON A DEATH SPIRAL:
As of 27th October, sea ice on the Arctic is at the lowest on record, meaning that high pressure is also likely to be a dominant player in the winter months. We can expect cold making it's way further South than typical, however combined with the warm winds for the Mid States provided by La Nina, Central areas could well see 110-115% of normal precipitation, including snow.
QBO (quasi biennial oscillation):
In it's Westerly phase, the QBO is supportive of a stronger polar jet stream and increased snowfall totals for the NE. The result of a Westerly QBO is a stronger Winter time Polar Vortex, however this year, the Polar Vortex is showing signs of weakening, resulting in slower moving areas of low pressure. As a result, any snow systems that form may be very slow moving and dump large amounts of snow in relatively compact areas. Lake effect snow could be on the rise as a result.
The Central North, areas close to the border will see a higher chance of severe ice systems for winter 2016/2017. Due to the weak Atlantic Jet stream, which (a strong Atlantic jet) usually helps pull blizzards away from the US, this winter's jet stream is likely to be weaker due to low sunspot output.
This means, snow systems could hang around for some time, and give 1-2ft" at a time for states such as parts of PA & NY. For Florida & the South in general, a cool to near normal winter is expected with a higher rate of frost due to higher pressure, however above average precipitation is possible in the SE. For the SW, it is likely to be somewhat drier.
Thank you for tuning into our winter forecast, this shall be updated daily.