Winter Storm Caly the Full Forecast – what you can expect from this winter storm

A Winter Storm will bring significant snowfall accumulations across a large swathe of Northern US this weekend and on Monday across the higher North East - generally 1-5" will fall with the exception being NW Pacific Mountains with up to 12" and also up to 12" for the Great Lakes, in fact parts of West Michigan / Lake Erie Coast South of Buffalo could see up to 18" by Tuesday.

Reaching the North West tomorrow, Mid West on Saturday Night and the Lakes by Sunday afternoon, this is our first named storm and significant snowfall for many, the snow will reach as far South East as PA and will not affect cities right on the East Coast, ie Manhattan.

This map highlights the areas at greatest risk of seeing impacts from Storm Caly in terms of snowfall:caly-98

As you can see the rain/snow border is quite far North and although all of the precipitation hitting the West Lakes on Sunday will be snow, a warm sector, a layer of slightly less cold air in the atmosphere will turn the snow on Monday back to rain for the East Lakes, Northern Ohio and PA, however once you hit Buffalo Northwards it will be all snow.

What you can expect if you are in the area of the storm:

Snow (2-8")

High winds (gusting to 30mph at times)

Blowing snow

Low visibility

Snowfall type will be POWDERY on Saturday/Sunday in the North West and Mid West however will be more wet in the East, especially as the wintry mix arrives on Monday.

Winds will become gusty in the system, very low visibility <0.4km is likely at times due to the blowing snow, an added risk. On high ground above 1,000ft, temporary blizzard conditions may occur however we are not expecting blizzard conditions at major city levels.

You may have recently heard about the Winter Storm, now named "Caly", forecast to affect the North West on Saturday, Mid West on Sunday, and Great Lakes / North of the North East (North of PA) on Monday generally dumping 3-5" of snow in it's path.

Projected Snowfall Totals:

Projected snowfall totals range from 1-4" in the West, and grow up toward 10" across areas close to the Great Lakes ie Chicago. The Storm will gradually head Eastwards, as it does so it will pick up more energy from the South, turning some of the snow back to rain on Monday. However, away from the immediate Coast (New York gets a wintry mix), it will fall as mostly snow with at least 1-4" in the moderately affected areas.

The highest snowfall totals are likely to be in parts of West Michigan, NW PA and West NY, but specifically Southern Michigan where 20 inches could be on the ground by Tuesday, due to the added lake effect showers dumping an initial few inches.

Rain/Snow boundary:

The rain / snow boundary is likely to be 200 miles from the East Coast, although the first energy (named Caly), will be mostly fine powdery snow and falling only as Snow where it does fall in Northern Indiana, Illinois, Ohio and PA,  the second area of energy forecast to arrive on Monday will be somewhat more of a wintry mix of sleet, rain and wet snow for these areas, however is likely to remain as (at least wet) snow for the Great Lakes.

This second bout of energy which will join the main energy on Monday will be more of a wintry mix for states further South whom originally saw snow.

This second bout of energy will also start off as snow, however will transition to rain and sleet for most areas during Monday before transitioning back to at least Wet Snow for areas South of Buffalo, however North of Buffalo expect an all snow event, as this transition to and from Snow will not affect you on Monday.

Snow types:

If your snow falls Saturday: powdery / fine.

Sunday: powdery / fine.

Monday: Powdery North of Chicago, South of Chicago wet and mixed with sleet.


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