So far this season temperatures have been fairly benign across the upper mid west and north east with little in the way of widespread, significant or disruptive snow to talk about, or in terms of low minima and cold weather either. That’s all change from here on in as the first taste of winter bringing widespread below avg temps and heavy lake effect snow from the lake starts tomorrow evening, with the potential for further reloads of fresh polar – Arctic air into mid December and the risk of snow rocketing through mid December.
Winter 2017-2018 U.S By Location Forecast
The cold spell will set in over the coming 72 hours across the mid west with states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan set in the freezer. As the lake effect snow machine gets going over the great lakes in the coming few days, especially on Thursday/Fri, some heavy snow accumulations in fairly narrow areas are likely on the east side of lakes in the Great Lakes with a widespread 2-12″. Especially areas just east of Lake Michigan and Lake Erie where some disruption from snow during Wednesday & Thursday is likely. The east coast will escape the worst of the cold, icy winter weather.
The cold front itself will clear over the next few hours and poses a snow risk only for the north of Wisconsin and Minnesota as cold air wraps into the low, for other areas the rain shifts SE it will be rain and behind it comes the cold frigid Arctic air with a 20F temperature drop in many places. The lake effect snow machine will ramp up on Thursday and Friday with some heavy accumulations possible in refined areas, one to watch if traveling through the great lakes THU/FRI. The block which is keeping the cold air in place looks to be quite stubborn which is likely to force further spells of deep cold into the north of the US – not necessarily heavy snow but early season deep cold and reloads, meaning further shots of Arctic air. An increase of jet stream activity may increase the risk of an oncoming winter storm / snow storm around mid month – and one date to watch is the 15th for a potentially more potent Arctic frigid blast.
Some more persistent snow is likely around the great lakes, perhaps parts of Ohio, Indiana, Indianapolis and NW Pennsylvania during Saturday and into Sunday building a 2-4″ cover in some places, however at the moment no “major blizzard” or anything majorly disruptive is on the way.