WINTER forecasts are created by adding several factors together and then assessing those factors. Currently there is moderate confidence for a winter around the seasonal average, however this winter may possess the potential for greater than average snowfall accumulations, especially across high gerund.
La Nina, enhances likelihood of cold by removing jet stream strength.
Little Solar Activity increases the activity of Northern Blocking and cold spells in the UK.
There is a much greater risk of cold this winter compared to 2013/14 to 2015/16. However, this is just a risk.
Milder than average winter looking ever unlikely.
A combination of extremely low solar activity is increasing the likelihood of cold weather for Winter 2016/17.
Long periods of low solar activity can affect the atmosphere in a way that is promising for longer spells of Easterly winds.
Greatest Chance of Heavy Cold & Snow in mid winter:
In the atmosphere, different events take different lengths of time to affect the weather system. Long range forecasts are leaning towards the climatic scope, meaning that Winter is likely to be cold during mid winter, before La Nina starts to weaken. Exactly when the cold spells are likely to occur is a mystery, even when we enter winter, you just have to stay tuned to the forecast.
Winter 2016/17 weather prediction, In further detail.
Of course, there is still a chance (around 30%), of another mild winter, to blame is quite warm North Arlantuc temperatures, and a generally supportive SST layout for an active jet stream.
However, if this by now weakened jet streak starts to interact with modelled blocking by mid winter, there is the potential for potentially disruptive snowfalls, especially across Central areas of the land.
There are further areas of information that we need to see coming in before we make a final forecast or outlook for winter which will ultimately shape the result of this forecast. However, with the information given to us do far it seems:
That WINTER 2016-2017 has a slightly higher chance of more significant wintry weather, especially from mid srason, due to weakening of maritime winds and increased lengths and severity of no or close to no solar sctivity.
December and February have the highest chance of being mild months.
The risk of a mild winter to carry on the trend of 3 mild United Kingdom winters is still a risk and has to be noted.