Snow Warning issued for much of England for tonight

A yellow, be aware snowfall warning has been issued for parts of the Midlands & Southern England for tonight. A “trough” is expected to pep up precipitation across England & Wales tonight. This precipitation may fall as sleet or snow above 200 metres of elevation, producing potentially up to 2-5cm of snow for parts of the Central Midlands, East Wales and northern home counties in areas at or above this elevation (200m). A tricky forecast, because it remains uncertain whether or not snow will accumulate to lower levels, and the bigger populated urban areas.

The Met Office Snowfall Warning spans south east Wales, much of the Midlands & into East Anglia. A separate snow & ice warning has been issued for Northern parts, this encompasses showery snowfall expected in the coming few hours, from a polar maritime flow.

As explained, most areas are likely to see rainfall, especially to lower ground and especially south of the M4 corridor. The chance of snowfall increases for higher parts of Wales, the Midlands & East Anglia, above 100m the risk increases to around 30% and to around 50% above 200 metres of elevation. The snow should melt quickly on Thursday to lower levels. However, there is a risk of travel disruption as this precipitation is likely to coincide with the Thursday morning rush hour. Once again The Peak District is likely to be impacted by some snowfall early on Thursday. This morning may higher routes were closed, including the A57 Snake Pass, many of which are slowly reopening this morning.

Research finds how much of Australia’s fires were burnt recently

The Research article was posted by “Nature Climate Change” and finds that the total area of forest burnt by recent bushfires exceeds 20%, at 21%.

The 2019/20 bush fire season is being described by scientists as unprecedented, and having “devastating consequences” for both humans and nature. It is important, however, to remain realist as a lot of unknowingly false information has been circulating around the internet concerning these bush fires, for example suggestive maps which do not give a true indication of the physical phenomenon, be aware of those.

The Causes of the Extreme Bush Fire Season

There are 3, currently, main known causes that may have helped to increase the Australian temperatures this Summer (December to February). One of which is climate change, the human induced, a gradual increase in temperature across the surface of the earth due to human activities. This raises global temperatures and as a result may have aided in producing more intense fires.

Another possible cause is the El Nino Southern Oscillation. A lack of cold sea surface temperatures over the Pacific may help to develop and maintain high pressure over the eastern coast of Australia, helping to maintain wild fire activity. Finally, the Indian Ocean Dipole. This is like El Nino, but spans the Indian Ocean.

As you can see from the graph below, the Indian Ocean Dipole was extremely positive in late 2019, as evidenced by the soaring red line. When the Indian Ocean Dipole is positive, high pressure is thought to increase in the Eastern Australia region, helping to bolster temperatures.

The impact, however, on climate change on these so called “telleconnections”, as such, remains a little uncertain. There has been some research to suggest that increasing global temperatures may cause them, such as El Nino, to act or behave differently. Nonetheless, this bush fire season has been severe with major impacts.

Flooding update – River Severn challenging flood defenses in Worcestershire

The River Severn is continuing to rise as the weekend’s rainfall continues to drain into it’s catchment up over the Welsh hills. The situation today along the Severn River bank has become increasingly tentative as flood waters have begun to over-top temporary flood defenses installed by the Environment Agency. This tweet, posted by Dave Throup earlier today shows a low amount of flood waters overtopping the temporary flood defenses installed in Bewdley, Worestershire.

2 Severe Flood warnings are currently in force, with still a high number of flood warnings and flood alerts in force. These 2 severe flood warnings are in force for stretches of the river Severn, including at Shrewsbury and a Wharfage, Ironbridge.

This is the latest info update regarding the situation at Shrewsbury concerning the severe flood warning;

“Severe flooding – danger to life

River levels are rising at the Welsh Bridge river gauge as a result of heavy rainfall. Consequently, flooding of property is expected to continue. Flooding is affecting Gravel Hill Lane, Sydney Avenue, Victoria Avenue, A458 Smithfield Road, A528 Coton Hill, Roushill, B5067 Berwick Road, Chester Street, Longden Coleham, Frankwell and St Julians Friar car parks. Water is under the bridge on Castle Foregate. The bus station and access to Riverside medical practice is also affected. We are expecting a prolonged peak at Welshbridge of 5.2m to 5.5m overnight tonight, Tuesday 25/02/20. The weather forecast remains unsettled for the next few days which may cause river levels to remain high. We are closely monitoring the situation. Our incident response staff are checking defences and liaising with emergency services. Please call 999 if in immediate danger and avoid contact with flood water. This message will be updated by 1am Wednesday 26/02/20, or as the situation changes.

This information was last updated at 5:29pm Tuesday 25 February 2020″ For more information on severe flood warnings and flood warnings issued please see the >Environment Agency website here.

The following chart shows the levels of the River Severn at Buildwas. Levels are still rising, however slowly, which should give officials time to monitor the rising levels. Nontheless, there is still a risk to life around the River Severn as river levels are set to continue to rise, through overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. Significant disruption has been impacting the towns of Shrewsbury and Worester today, and will most likely continue to through Wednesday and into Thursday as river levels remain exceptionally high, nearing those record levels set earlier this decade.

The Forecast

Although there will be a lack of heavy rainfall in the coming days, large rivers like the Severn which have a long feedback time will continue to remain high, slowly subsiding into the weekend. Some additional rainfall is likely through this week, whilst not on levels experienced in the past few days, it is enough to keep concerns high for those areas affected by flooding. This GFS rainfall accumulation chart gives expected accumulation in mm between now and Sunday. As you can see, accumulations in the order of 25 to 60mm are expected, helping to keep river levels up.

Please do stay safe and heed warnings / advice given from locals regarding this situation.

Further Snow & Ice forecast overnight

Conditions are looking increasingly wintry for some parts of the country overnight. A cold polar maritime air mass is expected to produce wintry showers across western and northern areas.

Some travel disruption has already occurred with the A537 Cat and Fiddle, A57 Snake and A53 Leek road being described as hazardous on Tuesday evening (21:30PM update). The A57 Snake Road is now closed due to snow.

The Met Office have weather warnings in force for Snow & ice for western Scotland, north west England, Northern Ireland, and much of Wales. The Met state that challenging conditions are possible in places, with a possibility of disruption to travel.


The Forecast:

A plethora of wintry showers are expected to affect Northern and Western Britain in the coming 12 to 24 hours. Initially snow in any showers will be primarily restricted to hills earlier on Tuesday, however by the late evening and overnight showers may fall as snow to increasingly lower levels across Northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Here, a few cm of snow could accumulate above 250 metres of elevation, whilst some places even down to modest elevations, say 100m, could see a temporary dusting of snow.

This snowfall accumulation map from, shows where the WRF weather model (GFS) is forecasting snowfall accumulation tonight. Do not take these exact defined areas too literally, however it gives a nice overview as to where the worst conditions may be. Generally speaking, western Wales, north west England, and western Scotland, on the high ground, can expect snow flurries this evening.

A few patches showing up across the Midlands indicating that snowfall here will be largely limited in nature, although some dusting’s in places can’t be ruled out. 

Across the Midlands, particularly the west Midlands, and South West England, some brief periods of precipitation are possible in some areas. Whilst difficult to forecast the exact location of these, they could also produce some wintry precipitation for temporary time periods. It’s likely that further east, across eastern England, conditions will remain largely dry overnight tonight with just some frost around. Saying that, temperatures will dip down close to or below freezing for most areas, especially areas with snow accumulation or clearer skies, i.e. in the North and West. Therefore, some icy patches are possible especially on either higher routes or untreated routes.

TRAVEL update – Heavy Snow hits parts of the UK

Parts of the UK have been experiencing persistent heavy snow for the past few hours, and some road issues are beginning to develop. Whilst the Peak District / southern Pennines region (i.e. Glossop, Buxton) remains snow free, significant & heavy snow is affecting places further north across Northern England. In particular, central and northern parts of Yorkshire, and into the Scottish Borders are being affected by some very icy & snowy conditions right now.

Within the key areas that were placed within our snow risk last night, this is how conditions are as of 8AM GMT.

North Wales> Snow Free

North Midlands> Snow Free

Peak District> Snow free (ice on the tops)

Yorkshire Dales > Heavy Snow, most side routes impassable.

North & West Yorkshire > significant and disruptive snowfall – up to 8″ deep in places on hills. Travel seriously disrupted.

Scotland> Heavy snow across the borders into Durham / Northumberland, sleet in the central belt and moderate snow in the highlands / southern uplands.

A169, North Yorkshire:

Conditions on the hills around Hawes, North Yorkshire are pretty atrocious at present:

To add to complications, strong winds are now beginning to produce some snow drifts in the worst affected areas i.e. North Yorkshire. The good news is that temperatures here will pick up during the day, melting most of any accumulating snowfall and improving traveling conditions.

However, across Scotland, some further heavy falls of snow are likely throughout the day, on the hills. To lower levels, slushy accumulations are possible here. The rest of England & Wales will turn milder today, with showers and strong winds. The colder air is set to return though, with wintry showers forecast for the North West for both Tuesday and Wednesday.