Winter Storm Watch:
The most significant snow will be in the next 12-18 hours across the Texas panhandle, central and north western Oklahoma state and north west Missouri. As the precipitation associated with this storm heads north west into Illinois, Indiana and Ohio this evening it will loose intensity and as a result produce more of a wintry mix of rain, sleet and light wet snow. That mix will continue into north west Pennsylvania and upstate NY early Tuesday, with sleet below 350-400m altitude, some snow yes, but the more significant snow restricted to higher ground and in land areas. As the storm progresses into northern Maine, north west Vermont and New Hampshire, some significant snowfall is likely to lower levels.
Although wind wont be a particular issue with this storm system – rain will be with a risk of flooding in places, especially those indicated by dark green on our map in the next 48 hours or so. Overnight into Tuesday very heavy rain will affect the south east and Mid Atlantic with a risk of flooding through Alabama, Georgia and into the Carolinas. Some flooding is likely, even as early as Monday evening (tonight) across northern Alabama, northern Georgia and South Carolina. Meanwhile snowfall will affect areas above 200m elevation for the far south of Illinois, southern Indiana and much of Ohio, by Monday evening 2-4″ will have fallen widely here in higher elevations. More like wet snow / sleet below 200m/600ft with very limited accumulations to lower ground in the same areas.
The system will begin to move quite quicky up the eastern side of the U.S through Tuesday, giving further very heavy rainfalls to Southern Virginia and Southern Maryland. By Tuesday afternoon the snow will have tracked up Lake Erie, North West PA, Upstate NY and into northern Maine, Quebec Canada. Here up to 8″ of snow is possible above 300m (1000ft) elevation, with between 0 and 2 inches below this elevation. The storm will pass into North East Quebec and Newfoundland late Tuesday, allowing for a shot of very cold air into the mid west and great lakes.
Check out these forecast temperatures for Tuesday (Credit: THEWEATHERCHANNEL):
On Tuesday more significant lake effect snow will also be present, for similar areas that will be affected today. Generally 1-3″ will fall, but some places may receive over 12″, in rather localized areas, like we saw today. MILDER on Thursday the 15th before more cold air floods south through Manitoba, Ontario and into the Mid West Friday, to affect the north east and lakes through the weekend. The cold air will be back for the weekend, not quite to the intensity that we will experience this Tuesday (13th of November) but nonetheless it will be colder than average with further snow chances from the 17th to the 23rd for the north and north east of the U.S.