UK Weather warning Heat alert issued by the met office for next week

Things are hotting up next week. The hottest week of the year so far by a country mile, with a likelihood of temperatures hitting the 30’s Celsius for many of you.

⚠️The met office have issued a level 2 heat health alert, meaning that alert and readiness is needed. This has been issued from Tuesday – Thursday for south eastern Britain.⚠️

Just because the rest of the country is not affected, doesn’t mean it wont get hot. As we progress through next week, the heat health alert could be extended to other parts of the country.

Most likely maximum temperatures for next Thursday:

London: 35C
Birmingham: 33C
Manchester: 32C
Plymouth: 28C
Liverpool: 31C
Leeds: 30C
Glasgow: 28C

So, the forecast then, taking it step by step.

On Sunday most areas will enjoy some warm weather. 26C is possible in the South East. Later in the day there’s a growing risk of some thunderstorms in the west. By the evening and into the early hours of Monday, showers are likely to develop in the west and could become thundery and heavy for parts of Northern England and North Wales overnight into Monday. A localized risk of surface water flooding.




On Monday and Tuesday there is a further risk of thundery downpours, they could pop up just about anywhere. An increasingly muggy feel by this stage with temperatures into the high 20s for large parts of the country, however it will remain fresher in the far north, for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

We keep the hot, humid weather going through much of the week. There is a significant degree of uncertainty with regards to forecast details, like which days will be the hottest days. Computer models have been fluctuating between Thursday and Saturday, with each of those days having an equal potential of hitting 35C, and consequently probably breaking the all time UK June temperature record of 35.6C at risk!

There is also a growing risk of thundery downpours, again due to swings and roundabouts in computer model data, details are difficult to assatain. However the general picture is that thunderstorms are possible throughout the week, especially by the weekend, with much of the week looking hot and sunny. The heat may become dangerous, with temperatures climbing perhaps into the 30’s.




Heatwave latest – will we hit 35°C?

All the talk is on next week’s heatwave, however before we get there there are several warnings in force. Head over to our warning page for more detailed information:

⚠️UK Weather Warnings

35°C is definitely within realms of possibility for next week. It may be difficult to believe that such high temperatures are on the cards, however meteorological data from the met office and other leading provides such as the European centre of medium range weather forecasting (ECMWF) are suggesting that the hot weather is increasingly likely.

Lets chunk days of similar conditions into chunks, that way we can begin to break down things further.

Sunday to Tuesday:

Characterized by a west east split. On Sunday temperatures will be notably higher in south east England and the east Midlands, perhaps up to the mid 20’s Celsius. In the west and north (West Midlands, Wales, SW England, NW England, Northern Ireland and Scotland), temperatures wont become that high, and we will see a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, later becoming thundery, locally.




By early Monday the wet weather will be affecting Scotland, the borders and into Northern Ireland. Somewhat clearer, and very warm weather will affect the central and southern parts of the country. However increasing instability may begin to trigger off some further thunderstorms in the west, anywhere from the Midlands, down to the SW and into North West England is at risk, of these downpours. Again the East mids, East Anglia and the SE enjoying the most of the warmth and sunny weather. Temperatures a littler higher than Sunday, touching 28C perhaps?

Tuesday will be a similar day, a mixture of sunshine and scattered thundery showers in the west and sunny spells widely for central and eastern areas. Very warm to hot in the sunshine. Again cooler for Scotland and Northern Ireland with a continued risk of showers. In the south and east temperatures may hit 30C (86F) given sunshine.

Wednesday to Thursday:

The REAL heat arrives. Below are the GFS forecast maximum temperatures for Wednesday, not to be taken literally. As you can see, 32C+ is a distinct possibility as the heat builds in the south east. However by this stage, the warmth will become more widespread. Widely above 27C for England and Wales (inland) and into the 20’s for Scotland and Northern Ireland – these conditions continuing into Thursday. There’s significant uncertainty as to just how hot it will get, the chance of hitting 30C in the south east is near 90%, of hitting 35C and that drops to 50%.

 

Rest of the week? UNCERTAIN – ask us next week.

Questions:

How long will the hot weather last?

There is a big question mark about how long the hot weather will last. As ever with weather forecasting, anything more than a few days out needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, especially so when we are dealing with “rather unsual” set ups like the one next week. There is a fine balance between continued hot weather, and a big thunderstorm break down for the later stages of next week.

Where and when the thunderstorms will occur?

A conveyer belt of thundery rain will affect central, western and northern parts from Sunday – Tuesday with parts of Wales and Scotland seeing very high rainfall totals. Largely across western England and Wales 20-50mm will fall, however on some Welsh uplands and Scottish highlands near 100mm (4 inches) of rain could fall during this period.

The forecast details for the thunderstorms becomes increasingly uncertain during the remainder of the week.




Thunderstorms on Monday before becoming very hot next week

The prospect of very warm to hot weather next week is still on the cards, and remains the most likely forecast option next week. A continued Atlantic influence through this weekend and into Monday will bring more mixed conditions, with some showers likely by Monday. These showers could merge into longer spells of rain or thunderstorms later on Sunday / especially Monday, with central and western parts favored for downpours, giving the risk of localized flooding. These thunderstorms and downpours will be hit and miss, but those who catch them will know about it.

The Met Office have a warning in force for Sunday and into Monday, which covers large parts of England and Wales. Isolated thundery downpours, especially in the west may develop, note: these may continue into Tuesday to.

As we progress into the remainder of the week strong south easterly winds are set to increase temperatures drastically. There is still a significant amount of doubt with regards to just how warm / hot it will get. The most likely outcome at present is that large parts of the country will see temperatures in the mid to upper 20s Celsius, with the south eastern portion of England seeing temperatures into the low 30’s (31-32C). Peaking on Wednesday or Thursday, the heat wont necessarily last all that long.




Monday will most likely be the first notably warmer day, with temperatures rising into the upper 20’s Celsius for south eastern parts, though some showers will continue. Cool temperatures will persist in the north east. A continued risk of thunderstorms in the west on Monday, which will keep temperatures a bit cooler compared to the south east, where it will be drier and consequently warmer.

Maximum temperatures for Monday (Credit: Meteociel):

 

The warmth becomes more widespread on Tuesday, perhaps reaching 30C in central London. Much of England and Wales will become increasingly warm with temperatures comfortably into the 20’s by this point. Again a further risk of thunderstorms, especially for western areas, hot sunshine likely for central and eastern parts. Overnight temperatures will also be warmer than average, making sleeping difficult in the south. The north will remain cool, especially in Scotland.




By Wednesday the heat will become more widespread, with temperatures in Western Scotland and Ireland into the 20’s. Strong easterly winds by this point means that north sea facing coasts (east coast) will lack in temperature compared to further in land. This temperature difference may be enough to induce instability and thunderstorms. Again muggy and uncomfortable overnight.

Highs by Wednesday:

There’s a lot of uncertainty about the forecast the remainder of the week. Temperatures will most likely remain above average, however a strong easterly wind will most likely offset the heat on the east coast, and this effect may cool down much of the east, depending on the strength of the wind. Throughout next week there is a risk of thunderstorms, early on in the week in the west, and by mid week central and eastern areas could see some disruptive thunderstorms, a lot to stay tuned to.




Heatwave conditions on the way

Yesterday we spoke about the likelihood of a European heatwave, and that is was unclear as to whether the British Isles will be affected.

Today, as further data is available to us, it is now looking more likely that heatwave conditions will affect the British Isles. However, as the very warm temperatures are unlikely to last 5 days or more, it can not be classified as a “heatwave”, however it will still be very warm, or even hot; especially from Tuesday to Thursday next week, with 30 degrees likely in the south.

Credit: Theweatheroutlook.com | Forecast maximum temperatures by Wednesday, perhaps up to 30C in the South?

 

Before we get there though, there’s still some awful weather to content with.




The Met Office have issued a weather warning for heavy downpours (thunderstorms) which is valid from 3pm Sunday until 11pm on Monday evening. Thunderstorms may develop in places, leading to torrential downpours and a risk of flooding in places. In fact all of England and Wales (except the very far South West) is affected by this early warning.

Behind this rain, into Tuesday, is the warm and hot air. Temperatures by Tuesday are likely to reach the mid to high 20’s for much of England and Wales. It will begin to feel very humid, especially by Wednesday. Some residual showers are likely in the far West, perhaps Wales and SW England on Tuesday to. Winds will be light so in the sunshine it will feel pleasant, probably the nicest day of the year so far – sunscreen required.

Conditions will remain very warm into Wednesday, this could be the hottest day of the upcoming spell with temperatures perhaps hitting 32C (90F) in the south eastern corner of England. The forecast becomes increasingly volatile from late Wednesday on wards. Increasing levels of instability mean that the risk of thunderstorms increases from late Wednesday on wards. There is the potential for a classic thunderstorm outbreak, with the possibility of big hail and powerful thunderstorms affecting parts of UK from late Wednesday on wards, however the detail regarding this remains very allusive. Stay tuned for further updates.




Suffolk Roof blown off by lightning strike

An intense thunderstorm affected the far south east of England last night. Lightning rates of 200 to 300 per minute were recorded in Kent and East Sussex for a while, before the severe weather pushed north eastwards, through Kent and crossing the far east of the Thames Estuary into Suffolk. The roof of a bungalow was reportedly blown off by a lightning strike in Shotley, Suffolk (credit: Heart East Anglia News)

Lightning can be very dangerous. Although it is the less potent risks associated with thunderstorms (like flooding), when it does “strike” (pardon the pun), it can have more severe consequences. Although trees are the most common object hit by lightning in the UK, in the past there have been some injuries recorded by lightning.

In recent news: European heat wave likely next week, but will the UK be affected?

It is very unlikely to get struck by lightning in the UK. On average 3 people a year are killed by lightning in the UK, 66 times less than the global average (via BBC), however chances drastically increase during a thunderstorm, of course! Stay safe.




Big European heatwave likely next week – Questions

A Severe European heatwave is looking increasingly likely for next week. Temperatures for much of central and western Europe are likely to soar way above average into next week, right from Germany to Spain.

Temperatures will into the 30’s are looking increasingly likely for the low countries and France, which is above average for June. However it is still largely unclear as to whether the British Isles will be affected, nevermind how much.

GFS forecast temperatures for next Monday (Credit: Wetterzentrale.de):

 

 

Questions – will the heatwave reach the UK?

50/50. At the moment it is too early to tell. We are rather confident that central and mainland Europe will be hotting up, however it is still very unclear as to whether the heat will advance into the UK. 50/50 means exactly that, it could still happen. We’ll know by almost certain by the weekend as to whether the British Isles will be affected.

If you’re off holidaying it looks pretty good for much of Europe next week, with temperatures into the 30’s almost universally. With the exception being Portugal, somewhat cooler here due to an Atlantic influence.




The British Isles haven’t seen heat of this magnitude for almost 12 months, meaning for some it will be a shock to the system, IF it occurs here, and that’s a big if. The forecast for Britain is always a little more uncertain, as the country sits on a boundary between 4 significant air masses. The continental climate of Europe is always a little easier to predict.

That being said, the increased heat across much of central and western Europe next week will possibly trigger off some thunderstorms, high CAPE values (instability in the atmosphere) are likely in places next week. These could also affect the British Isles, in fact this is more likely than the heat, as we are on the boundary between the hot Spanish air that will be affecting much of Europe and cooler Atlantic air masses. This boundary will fuel the increasing risk of thunderstorms.

By Wednesday of next week the GFS weather model is teasing the possibility of the real hot air entering the UK – again this is largely uncertain. Notice how parts of France are hitting 37C, proper heat!

 

As said many a time, things are highly uncertain for next week. It could be another cool and wet week, however that 50/50 chance of a heatwave is there. Keep a close eye on forecasts and updates, we will know by the weekend whether our country will be affected.