Sometimes the conditions in the Mediterranean are right for air to start circulating within an area of thunderstorms and this is when “Medicanes” – which are in essence tropical storms and hurricanes in the Mediterranean, form. Waters in the Mediterranean are currently way higher than average which is part in part a worry. Tropical storms and hurricanes fuel is warm waters. Video: Arpege computer model forecast for Saturday indicating the potential for a “Medicane” near Greece on Saturday (via @WxCharts):
Most weather models are now forecasting category 1 hurricane force sustained winds moving concerningly close to south western Greece and possibly Crete as we approach the weekend, arriving on Friday or Saturday, Impacts could be significant from this. Flooding rains of over 200mm (8 inches) and wind gusts over 100mph in the Peloponnese islands and Cyclades islands are possible, creating a real risk to people in terms of wind damage and flooding. There is some uncertainty involved, not all weather models intensify this “Medicane” (Mediterranean hurricane) up to the 50-80mph described. Some keep the storm at just 30-40mph wind speeds, still strong but not capable of the widespread destruction that hurricane force winds bring upon landfall.
Most weather models predict this feature to develop in the next day or so, active circulation has not yet occurred however models paint an alarming picture with active tropical storm like circulation developing over the next few days. This part of the world is used to thunderstorms which often dump 50-100mm (2-4 inches) of rain, however they are not used to the impacts that this storm could bring.
One of the main risks included with a tropical storm / hurricane are the flooding rains. If this system slows down as it moves further east, it could provide a landslide risk to central Greece / Athens area this weekend. The high resolution computer models may be over estimating this storm slightly, however the risk is there.