For quite some time now we have been talking about a blast of much colder air, and it is set to arrive this week. Conditions will begin to turn cold in the far North on Tuesday with some limited snow falls, but it’s not until Thursday and Friday until the “proper” severely cold air makes it’s way into the northern lakes, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Northern Michigan will be worst affected, with it the risk of significant snow falls, not just this week but into the following week (12th). The map below indicates the risk of winter weather, as you can see the east coast just about gets away with it.
Risk of Winter Weather conditions (risk map)
The map above gives an idea of where the coldest weather is expected to be, using the likelihood of temperatures not rising above freezing (32F) during the day. That is our basic winter weather definition. As you can see, a large portion of the lakes have a high risk of not exceeding 32F during the day, which is well below average for November.
Snow Risk. Yes there is a risk of snow of course, as well as the biting cold. There will be light to moderate wet snow in North Dakota and North Minnesota late Tuesday leaving 2-3″ of wet accumulation, before the same system tracks into Northern Wisconsin and Northern Michigan through Wednesday. That system will stick around for some time on Wednesday through Northern Michigan, Wisconsin and much of Ontario and southern Quebec through Wednesday and into Thursday, giving more slushy accumulation and significant high ground snow, but it will be drier further south.
There is then a developing risk of further snow systems later into the week and into the weekend, the exact details can not be announced however there is the risk of some significant lake effect snow which could be quite stubborn across the great lakes this coming weekend.
Current temperatures at 5,000ft above the surface:
Temperatures right now are around average for much of us, continuing above average for much of us next week away from the north
Predicted temperatures from the ECMWF weather model for the 9th of November 2018:
The ECMWF actually plunges cold air as far south as Kansas whilst deep cold infiltrates the Dakotas.
As you can see, a significant dive in temperature. There would be a developing snow risk across great lake and northern regions – some significant lake effect snow would be possible as well as winter storms and snow storms / systems. Temperatures will take a big dive next week if you are in Minnesota, northern Michigan and the Dakotas, with the risk of some snowfall. Canada and especially Ontario will take the biggest plunge in temperature. Take a look at the temperature forecast for Winnepeg into next week:
