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El Scorchio: Temperatures into the 30s this weekend

A difficult week of weather forecasting so far. Thunderstorms that have “gone wrong” – in other words, not been as significant as the forecast expected them to be. As we progress into the remainder of the week, the focus turns to heat. Across much of western Europe the searing heat has arrived, with temperatures well into the upper 30’s Celsius for many parts of Spain and France.

Forecast temperatures for Saturday (credit: Theweatheroutlook), make the most of it.

Forecast

The UK has been on the edge of the heat, however by Saturday we will get a taste of it. Cooler easterly winds will keep the eastern side of the country relatively fresh, but still warm (away from the coast) during Thursday and Friday. There will be stark contrast between the west and the east. Parts of south west England, near Glastonbury, are likely to see temperatures near 30C this Thursday and Friday, whilst cooler conditions will prevail in eastern counties – just 24C in London for example, with some cloud being brought in off the North Sea.

It will also be rather breezy on Thursday and Friday, especially in the south west. The Met Office have actually issued a wind warning for the south west; gusts of 40 or 50mph are possible in some south western coasts and hills.




Temperatures peak on Saturday, winds become lighter and humidity increases so an increasingly oppressive feel. Most computer models are simulating temperatures between 30 and 34 degrees Celsius in South Eastern England, for example London. Elsewhere across England and Wales, very warm to hot at between 26 and 29C, generally. Slightly fresher however in western Scotland and Ireland, a sign of things to come.

Fresher conditions will arrive from the Atlantic from Sunday, bringing showers in the north west, but probably still predominately dry in the south east. There is also a risk of thunderstorms this weekend, more detail will be available nearer the time.




Large thunderstorm set to impact South East England overnight

Thunderstorms were sporadic last night across the North, however largely were not as widespread or severe as we were forecasting them to be, though some did occur. Sometimes this is the case. Thunderstorms are difficult to predict, however can be quite hazardous, which means it was worth warning of them.

Over the next 24 hours there is a further risk of thunderstorms. This time the more south eastern part of the UK is at risk. Sometime overnight tonight and into the small hours of Tuesday, a cluster of thunderstorms is likely to move up from the English Channel into southern counties, potentially into the Midlands, South East England and perhaps Lincolnshire. All these areas are at risk, however not all of them will see the storm. This is because there is uncertainty regarding the exact track of the system.

In places that do see the storm, high rainfall totals, perhaps as much as 50mm (2 inches) are possible, with frequent lightning, hail and gusty winds also posing a possibility.

The image below is our Thunderstorm risk map issued for tonight, with further information about the risk.

As we head through the week ahead, there are further risks of thunderstorms in places, with warm muggy air over the UK. Temperatures wont be drastically high, largely staying under 30C, for most, however high dew points are likely to build a rather oppressive and muggy feel through the week. More detail regarding these storms will be given nearer the time.




France braced for 42 degree heatwave this week

The August 2003 heatwave made many negative memories of severe heatwaves in France, and much of continental western Europe, which is why concerns have been raised for the anticipated heat in the coming week.

A large area of high pressure and it’s associated hot southerly winds are expected to push up unusually hot air from North Africa and the Sahara desert into much of western Europe in the coming days. The British Isles will be largely unaffected by the worst of the high temperatures. In contrast, much of continental Europe, France, the low countries, Italy, will see temperatures much above average.

Temperatures across France will gradually increase through this week. Inland areas will be hottest, with coastal areas staying a few degrees cooler. Highs of 40C or more are likely on Thursday and Friday, with a slow cooldown to somewhat less dangerous temperatures through the weekend, though it will remain hot.

Forecast maximum temperatures by Thursday afternoon (Credit: meteociel):

Forecast maximum temperatures by Friday:

As you can see, the British Isles will be largely unaffected by the searing heat. However, in France temperatures are predicted to reach 42C locally, however this could reach 43 or 44C in places. The heat comes with many health risks, especially to the very young and very old. North Eastern parts of Spain and much of northern / central Italy will also be affected by the incredible heat, with highs largely into the upper 30’s. The all time French maximum temperature record, set on 10th August 2003 in Saint-Christol-lès-Alès, Gard of 44.1C is at risk of being broken this week.




UK Sunshine warning: Gingers on high alert

  • Posted on Monday 24th June 2019 in SATIRE & HUMOR

Gingers up and down the UK are on “high skin burn alert” after high temperatures and sunshine have been forecast. A week of Summer weather across the UK is increasing the worry within the UK ginger community, after various weather warnings have been issued. “People who are Ginger, should take notice of warnings”. “Don’t go in the hot sun at all, I’d say, you could crisp up immediately”.

Temperatures could hit 30C (86F) later this week, meaning images like this are more than likely:

However, people with other colors of hair are at risk, of more minor sunburn. Appropriate use of protective gear such as suncream and hats / long sleeve cool t-shirts are advised, if you must go outdoors. Take notice of warnings!




Glastonbury 2019 weather – take suncream and wellies!

Much of the week ahead will be characterized by warm, muggy weather. High humidity and at times very high pollen levels through the week ahead will make it difficult for those who suffer from Summer allergies, like hayfever.

A large area of high pressure is currently developing to our south east, which will introduce warm south easterly winds over the next week.

Temperatures will be on the rise, with every day this week likely to reach at least 20C in Glastonbury. However, the forecast remains rather complicated in terms of cloud amounts and rainfall over the week ahead, with low pressure remaining fairly nearby, although warm temperatures will be plentiful, the prospect of showers, which could be thundery, is also there.

Preliminary outlook: 

Wednesday: Dry, sunny spells. High: 22C. (Confidence 605)

Thursday: Possibility of showers – Sunny spells. High: 24C. (Confidence 50%)

Friday: Possibility of thunderstorms – Sunny spells. High: 25/26C. (Confidence 40%)

Saturday: Possibility of thunderstorms – Sunny spells. High: 27/28C. (Confidence 40%)

Sunday: Possibility of thunderstorms – Sunny spells. High: 26/27C. (Confidence 40%)

The overall picture for Glastonbury 2019 remains a warm to very warm one, with temperatures a little above average, perhaps significantly above average at times.

Forecast highs for Thursday, when most people arrive at the festival site:

Winds during the early and mid part of the week will be fairly noticeable, having a cooling effect on the air temperature. A mixture of sunny spells and a risk of some showers, which should be fairly isolated, promising a good deal of dry weather.




However, as we progress into the weekend, the suggestion is that winds may become more south easterly. This could help the increase temperatures, possibly to 29 or 30C in Glastonbury, but will also introduce the risk of thunderstorms.

 All in all, some quite high temperatures are forecast, with high UV and pollen levels likely through the Glastonbury period. There is also a risk of thunderstorms, especially later in the Glastonbury festival (weekend). So to summarize, I’d take both suncream and wellies!




Severe Weather Warning for Thunderstorms in places tonight

Unstable air associated with a plume of warm air is expected to combine with Atlantic moisture to produce the risk of thunderstorms tonight. The greatest risk is later in the night, into the early hours. The areas most likely to be impacted include Northern England, the Pennine chain, and into Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

Storms will be sporadic in nature even here, but will produce some frequent lightning and the potential for medium sized hail. Some disruption due to flash flooding is possible, especially in the yellow area below. With the grey area seeing a lesser chance of flash flooding. The storms will migrate north, likely reaching the borders of Scotland and far north of England later in the night or some time tomorrow. Again the timing is a little uncertain. As these storms are overnight, impacts to travel are expected to be rather low, but could happen in places.

Thunderstorm risk map: Sunday night and into Monday.

In the worst affected areas, up to 30mm of rain could fall, leading to a risk of surface water flooding. As the ground is rather unsaturated, river flooding is less of an issue, however if storms affect Lincolnshire, which is a possibility, river flooding could occur due to high rainfall levels.




On Monday day there is a continued risk of showers, which may be thundery in places, but will be rather isolated. Overnight from Monday into Tuesday there is a further risk of thunderstorms, perhaps a cluster of thunderstorms working into south east England some time from Monday night through to the early hours of Tuesday. This could produce frequent lightning and heavy rainfall, however the details with regards to this remain uncertain. A preliminary map has been issued.

Stay tuned for more information on the storm risk through the week. With hot unstable air aloft and cooler temperatures nearer the surface, there is a continued risk of thunderstorms this coming week.