A significant change is on the way, to much colder than average conditions. Although this week will be very mild, thanks to high pressure being situated in a position favorable to draw up mild southerly winds, by next week the high pressure is predicted to have pushed further north to allow colder easterly winds to affect the British Isles.
The first signs of a change will be present this weekend, with a gradual cool down in temperatures to around average. However by next week, we begin to import cooler continental air. With the same atmospheric set up during the proper winter months, temperatures would be a lot lower and there would be a greater risk of snowfall. Since we are still in November and the air associated with next week’s weather is not particularly cold, the risk of snowfall is fairly minimal for most of us. Nontheless, it will feel bitterly cold on the coast, and for a good deal of us temperatures will be firmly below average. Frosts will be more frequent in western areas as here there will be more lengthy clearer spells.
Forecast maximum temperatures by next Tuesday, just 5, 6 or 7C for most of us:
There is also the risk of some wintry showers, epecially from Tuesday on wards. It will be too warm for most of us for showers to fall as anything more than rain or sleet, however across say the Peak District, or Welsh hills, there is some chance of at least some falling snow.
Precipitation type forecast for Tuesday 21st November, risk of wintry showers on higher ground indicated by pink (snow) and green (sleet) colours respectively. (Do not take exact locations literally)
For all it will be markedly colder next week with a cold easterly wind. It’s likely that Wednesday and Thursday the 21st and 22nd of November could continue the cooling trend, with even colder temperatures. Day time highs may fall close to 5C, even across southern areas. And there would be a risk of some snow flurries, especially but perhaps not exclusively to higher ground regions. As mentioned, the forecast detail can not be nailed down until closer the time. It may be that the air is not quite cold enough for these wintry showers,
It’s likely that next week will remain quite cold, potentialy colder than average through much of the week. However forecast confidence is known to “drop off” considerably after the 7 day mark, which for this forecast is next Tuesday, so confidence is fairly low on this idea of “very cold” temps of 5C or below maximas. Some computer models (GFS) develop a wave of particularly cold air of Siberian origin through Wednesday / Thursday of next week. Although the risk is there, some computer models cancel out this risk and introduce less intense cold south westerly winds for the same time. Either way, get those winter mittens out, because whether it’s 8C or 3C next week, it will still feel cold in a strong, at times gale force easterly wind. And just keep a check on the forecast nearer the time, because there is, allbeit quite minimal, snow potential.
Further ahead:
Forecast confidence is even lower during the final 7 days of the month from next Friday the 23rd to Friday the 30th of November. The jet stream is likely to remain weaker than normal. What exactly causes this is not entirely known, however it could be a “knock on” effect from the current solar minimum occuring. Temperatures are likely to remain either close to or below average, with a continued risk of frost and perhaps also fog. There is also a chance of some snowfall, especially across northern and eastern parts of the British Isles.