El Nino or La Nina for Winter 2019? It’s mid September and winter is looming. Snow storms, including the forecasts of heavy snow or ice will be covered on this site. However, as this prospect is still a few weeks away for most of us, now is the time to take a look at potential seasonal forecasts for the winter season.
El Nino or La Nina for Winter 2019?
Last winter (2018-2019) was characterized by a weak El Nino. Overall temperatures were near average, however there were some brutal cold spells at times. One possible reasoning for these brutal cold spells is El Nino. El Nino may act to strengthen the “polar jet stream”, responsible for producing such cold shots.
In the last few months El Nino has pretty much ran out of steam. Sea temperatures in the Pacific are cooling down, and although the most likely outcome for winter 2019 is a “neutral winter” – a La Nina event can’t be completely ruled out for winter 2019!
Image, current sea surface temperatures in the Pacific:
As you can see, temperatures in the Pacific look rather “chilly”, certainly cooler when compared with a few months ago:
So, what’s the forecast then? Well, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific aren’t likely to get that much cooler, but perhaps a little. We’re looking at a “near neutral” winter season. This means sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are most likely to be too cold for El Nino and too warm for La Nina, just near normal. The chance of an El Nino is around 5%, and a La Nina slightly higher at 30%. That leaves around a 65% chance of what we call “neutral” for winter 2019.
Quite a few big winters have occurred during “neutral” winters, so this doesn’t discount the risk of some heavy snow and cold winter weather! Be prepared for the worst as always, and stay tuned to any forecasts that are released in the next few weeks.