Good evening. Many parts of the UK have been experiencing heavy rain & strong winds associated with Storm Dennis today, with many trees down, a few power outages and some transport disruption.
Through tonight, Storm Dennis is set to continue affecting the central and southern parts of Britain – England and Wales. Expect further pulses of heavy rainfall overnight, especially across Wales, the Midlands, and Southern England. Here, an additional 15-30mm of rainfall likely with possibly a bit more than that over hillier areas. This means there’s a significant risk of standing water to start Sunday, which could stick around through much of the day in places.
A Met Office Amber weather warning is in force for rainfall in the South tomorrow, as well as parts of the South West, Wales and parts of Northern England, displaying their concern for the heavy rainfall and it’s associated problems. River levels are continuing to climb across parts of Northern England, even now that the rain has cleared off, as fallen water continues to drain from fields into the river systems. This means that whilst the heaviest rainfall may have mostly cleared from the North, further hazardous conditions are possible overnight.
Some computer models are also forecasting the potential for a squall to develop overnight – a narrow band of very strong winds and heavy rain. This could produce some “flash” flooding in places, with high amounts of rainfall in a very short space of time. This feature wont affect all – but likely many, as it potentially forms across the Midlands and perhaps lingers across the South East for a time early on Sunday, before clearing later in the day.
The winds are also likely to intensify further tonight, gusting again up to 50 or 60mph even inland, meaning more trees may be brought down. This especially a hazard given the likely soginess of the ground following the heavy rainfall. A less disturbed, but colder air mass is expected across Northern Ireland and Scotland, cooler temperatures here with wintry showers over hills above 400m/1300ft of elevation, with temperatures dropping down to 2-4C. Elsewhere across England and Wales, it will remain mild to very mild overnight with exceptionally mild temperatures in the south – 11/12C as a low for parts of Southern England!
Gradually through Sunday afternoon, the heavy rainfall will ease from South East England, producing drier conditions for the bulk of the mainland – though it will remain very windy. Further wind gusts up to gale force can be expected in the West and North, infact becoming even stronger for a period of time later on Sunday and into Monday (17th February) across Southern Scotland and Northern England. Stay safe during this spell of severe weather.