I’m sure you’ve heard about the risk (likelihood) of some
This is correct. UK Thunderstorm warnings are active for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of the upcoming week. It’s worth noting that not everyone will see these thunderstorms, which will be hit and miss. However, the main risk areas which see an increased chance of thunderstorm development are highlighted in this post.
1) The first outbreak is anticipated on Monday evening and into the early hours Tuesday morning. The main risk areas include the West Midlands, Wales, North West England and Irish Sea Coasts. Some severe thunderstorm activity is possible with large hail, gusty winds and flooding in places, over 50mm (2″) of rainfall may fall within an hour in the worst affected areas. The following thunderstorm risk map highlights the areas most at risk from the initial outbreak discussed. Some scattered thunderstorms are possible elsewhere, for example along the south coast of England during this time.
2) Whilst confidence regarding the initial outbreak discussed above are relatively high, the details regarding Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are currently quite allusive. There remains a continued risk of thunderstorms, however, and these again could be quite severe. Met Office weather warnings (UK wide) are valid for these 3 days, so the risk is there. Even their site mentions significant uncertainty regarding the location & timing of events in this time frame. Therefore, stay tuned to any future developments regarding this time frame.
Wednesday evening looks of particular interest with the potential for widespread thunderstorms to march northwards across the UK.
Thanks for tuning in. Admin.