Remainder of this week
The forecast for the remainder of this week and into the weekend is for milder than average temperatures. Wet, and windy weather for much of the UK. Increasingly, as we progress through next week, colder than average temperatures are likely to develop across northern parts of Britain. This producing wintry showers early on Wednesday 23rd to Northern hills, with the potential for significant snowfall above 300 metres across Northern Scotland.
23rd/24th of December
Into the remainder of the week, from late Wednesday (23rd) onwards, colder than average temperatures are likely to push further south across the whole of Britain. This transition likely marked by a spell of wet weather with rain and sleet. There is a possibility this could turn wintry to hills across northern areas, however as this is a long way off the forecast is particularly uncertain. As we progress into Christmas day, it’s likely that this low pressure will head eastwards into central Europe, as it does so it will likely pull in wintry showers. As a result, some sleet / snow showers are possible just about anywhere during this period. Possible, however, does not mean definite. The risk of snow anywhere is about 30%, this increasing to 50% across Northern hills. This is slightly higher than the average of 10/25% for both these regions.
Christmas Day itself
Away from any wintry showers, conditions will be dry and seasonable. Temperatures a little below the seasonal average. Temperatures will likely range from 1-4C in the North to 2-7C in the south. If any fog patches develop, temperatures may stay close to freezing all day. The wintry showers, at present, are most likely to affect coastal areas. We’re talking insignificant snow mostly restricted to hills, nonetheless only one observation of snow is required to officially have a white Christmas.
This would produce the coldest Christmas for some time, perhaps since 2010 across the UK. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding Christmas day. It is possible that the set up could be even more wintry than this forecast suggests – with the potential for more significant accumulations of snow in the East. That will be resolved nearer the time, however.
Model Analysis
The GEM is fairly reflective of most computer model output for Christmas day. It indicates a cold air mass with temperatures a few C below average, with a risk of wintry showers across eastern parts of Britain.
White Christmas Risk
The following map expresses the current risk of a white Christmas compared to what would normally be expected. As you can see, there is a slightly enhanced risk across north eastern parts. This is subject to change.
