It wasn’t long ago when Hurricane Ophelia lead to the strongest winds in Ireland’s history being recorded. A 119mph wind gust was recorded on the 16th of October 2017 as post tropical storm Ophelia impacted the UK & Ireland. Tropical storms and hurricanes rely on extremely warm ocean waters to survive, and the waters around the UK are at least 8C colder than required to sustain a hurricane, therefore any hurricane will likely loose some of it’s tropical hurricane characteristics, however retain a significant amount of strength.
Hurricane Helene is currently sitting over 2,000 miles south west of the UK and Ireland with maximum sustained winds of 90mph (strong cat 1) and is forecast to weaken slightly to a high end tropical storm, as it heads in the general direction of north west Europe. By next Monday the official National Hurricane center track has Helene around 300 miles south west of Ireland as a post tropical storm, indicated below. A storm with sustained winds close to 50mph and gusts likely over 75mph, not a raging hurricane but enough to cause some disruption and very rough weather if it eventually does impact some places.
Some computer models suggest that Helene could affect the UK (or a post tropical Helene), as early as next Tuesday, 18th of September. If it does pass over the UK it is unlikely to be as powerful as Ophelia, however it could still be a very strong storm and provide opportunity for power outages. Especially given that trees are still fully leafed. It is worth emphasizing that there is some uncertainty in the forecast and at the moment this is just a risk, however one we are keeping a close eye on, and you should to.