UK snow early taste of winter forecast

Any Snow on the way this November? Long Range Forecast




In the “forseeable future”, which is the term weather forecasters use to describe the next 7 to 10 days, as that is the limit of how far out “accurate” forecasts can be produced – there isn’t really any snow in the forecast for the British Isles. Of course, there will be a few flakes up on the Scottish Mountains, but for the rest of us there isn’t much in the way of winter weather to talk about in the week ahead… So the answer is a big fat NO!

That ribbon is the “jet stream” which will continue to run west to east in a fairly uniform pattern over the next week or so, delivering a “train” of mildish, unsettled and at times wet and windy air into UK and Ireland. A typical temperature value during the day will be around 12C, close to average.




Cooling down a bit by next weekend – but nothing severe.

We’re in a south westerly air stream this week. Bringing that mild, changeable weather. However by the time we progress into the weekend and the following week (commencing 12th of November) there are signs that a more “polar maritime” air mass will begin to affect the UK.

A Polar Maritime Air Mass is a cool one, as it comes from the Northern Atlantic, but not really a cold or snowy one.

You can see that clearly on the jet stream forecast below by the time we get to Monday the 12th of November, notice how it is well to the south of the UK. This will allow air to the north of the UK to infiltrate over the country. It wont be especially cold, since the air is still “Atlantic based”, meaning it would be quite unsettled, wet and windy, just not particularly mild into the following week. It would still not be cold enough for snow, but just cooler. A typical day time temperature value would be around 10C.

Looking further ahead – late November.

The accuracy of a forecast always drops off the further out you forecast, so uncertainty is high. However it looks like the unsettled theme will last through the week of the 12th – 18th of November, as mentioned cooler, but not cold. There are very tentative signs of a more significant cool down during the final 2 weeks of the month, which is of course expected at this time of year, and there would be a risk of snow for some, especially on northern hills.