Good morning – a really boring couple of days coming up weather wise (yet again!). Today (Monday) looks boring with just a few light showers in the north and west, drier in the south. It’s cold enough for some of those light showers to turn to snow above 200-300m in Northern Scotland but no where else. Skies clear for south eastern parts tonight and here we run the risk of a frost in rural areas to start Tuesday. A bit brighter here for tomorrow however further north we keep a rash of cloud and a few light showers dotted about but nothing major. Winds will begin to increase later on Tuesday heralding a change..
It turns increasingly unsettled from the north west by the early hours of Wednesday with lots of rain tracking south east. It’s likely most of us will pick up at least some moderate bursts of rain on Wednesday but once the cold front sweeps away (hopefully it will have done by tea time), it will turn drier into the evening for the mainland, but colder. Highs of “just” 5/6C (Scotland -50C) but I mean that’s only slightly below average… However, there will be a rash of wintry showers for the north west, Scotland parts of Ireland, hills of Wales and parts of the Pennines, scattered minor accumulations of snow on high ground areas in the north of 1-5cm above 300 metres for Scotland and even more scattered in the Pennines but there will be a touch for some.
The below chart shows precipitation type forecast from the NMM model for midnight on Thursday (Wednesday night). There’s some support for a trough to enhance the precipitation activity in the far north during this time frame. This could bring a sprinkling of snow to places like Durham and Scotland, especially but perhaps not limited to higher ground. Pink indicates snow, blue rain.
Thursday looks like a bit of a restbite, a patchy frost and chilly start but a good deal of sunshine through the day. Wintry showers continuing around coasts in the north west but becoming a bit lighter through the day. It will The weather is likely to remain on the chilly side into the weekend. Some frost. Some rain. And potentially some snow. One system which is giving forecasters a headache is the potential slider low forecast for Friday. This has the potential to produce snow as the moisture associated with it engages with the cold air at the surface over the British Isles. Saying where, when, and how much is uncertain however I’d say parts of the Midlands, and especially on high ground could see a little on Friday and into Saturday, but this is prone to changes (upgrades and downgrades). For now it’s just a possibility…
So a cold weekend either way, with a ridge of high pressure modelled to push in on Sunday / Monday. So there are differences between the GFS, ECM and UKMO with regards to the weekend’s disturbance, but all 3 have a fairly similar outcome for Sunday / Monday which is this ridge building in. So probably an enhanced risk of frost later on in the weekend and into Monday, but still some minor wintry potential which needs monitoring. There is good consensus for very disturbed weather later into next week, probably from Tuesday the 22nd on wards with a wrath of low pressure and the weather associated with it. However it would not be particularly mild, as the air with the low looks rather cold. So central and northern areas have to watch out for wintry showers and snow showers maybe next week, watch out for the risk. And stay tuned to the forecast :D.
If you happen to scroll down this page and find snow warnings, they’re for the USA.