The early stages:
Confidence is now pretty high (although far from 100% with regards to the details) that some areas will be affected by snow accumulations of over 12 inches within the space of 24 hours. The snow will be heavy with rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour leading to the likelihood of some major travel issues this weekend. A lesser system beforehand will bring 2-4 inches of snow for in land areas of the North East on Friday with inland Pennsylvania, New York state, Vermont, NH and Maine affected by snow.
At the same time, significant snowfall will be developing behind the system on Friday in South Dakota, northern parts of Nebraska, and later into Friday night for parts of Iowa, Kansas potentially, before the storm heads towards the lakes for Saturday. This is associated with the major weekend storm which sweep a nasty mix of heavy rain, freezing rain and very heavy snow across much of the country.
The Snow / Ice risk in more detail through the weekend:
The system will be affecting parts of the mid west and great lakes by Saturday with heavy snow, low visibility and near impossible travel. Chicago could see 1-3 inches, with accumulations being very much significantly higher for central northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, here totals could be up to 12-16 inches in places. The diving line between rain and snow will be across central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio with heavy rain to the south. Rainfall on Saturday could be really intense for these more southern states (Kentucky, Tennesse etc). The map below gives an overview of how much snow could fall from this but beware, this is only a preliminary prediction and is subject to changes.
As you can make out, this winter storm is packing a punch. It’s not just snow of course – a warm sector within the storm system will produce rain for parts of Pennsylvania and New York state, in fact anywhere in the North East could see snow, then freezing rain then more snow producing a very challenging environment. In some places over an inch of ice could fall. Although things could still change it’s looking likely that south east of the I-95 impacts will be lesser with temperatures staying closer to freezing, but this could change.
Some of the highest snowfall totals are likely to be in the hills of say NY state, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine with up to 24 inches (2ft) possible here. Closer to 1ft is likely for those northern parts of Ohio, close to lake Erie, with totals above 6 inches extending into northern Indiana and Illinois, though some places even here will see close to 1ft we think. The snow will extend into southern parts of Quebec to, where here cities such as Montreal and Sherbrooke will likely see some high snowfall totals. Stay tuned to local weather forecasts, NOAA warnings @ weather.gov and our updates of course. Stay safe!