Yesterday we released a post discussing the Met Office weather warnings in force for the coming week. They have released warnings for heavy rain for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with parts of the Midlands and Northern England expected to see the most rain. If you would like more information on the Met warnings, visit our post about them or of course go to the metoffice.gov.uk website.
The Forecast.
Monday: The first day of the consecutive warnings from the Met, and a showery day for most, with some brighter interludes for northern areas. However rain will be fairly persistent throughout for parts of the Midlands and South East England. Pulses of rain, on and off will continue throughout the day and most likely into the early hours of Tuesday for much of the Midlands and South East England. In these areas, up to 2 inches of rain is possible, locally. This means some localized flooding is possible by early Tuesday, in the mentioned areas.
Tuesday: The weather front responsible for the rain in the South East on Monday night will have moved north west, now affecting parts of the north Midlands, Wales with lighter but still moderate at times spells of rain. There is no met office warning for this area for Tuesday, so the risks posed are reduced.
Wednesday: Further heavy rain expected. A new weather front, which looks like it could be very active, is likely on Wednesday. This could give further pulses of heavy rain across Northern England, the Midlands and parts of North East Wales, however widely across England and Wales some rain is expected. As it’s still a few days away, there is still scope for changes regarding Wednesday’s weather – however it could prove to be the most problematic day of the week. Some computer models are suggesting over 75mm of rain (3 inches) could fall in places on Wednesday, which will be enough to produce flooding.
Thursday: The potential for further rain, through Northern England, the North Midlands and surrounding areas. Again, the detail is uncertain. – So stay tuned for updates over the coming days. If the forecast verifies, there could well be some significant travel disruption through next week.
The one “saving grace”, perhaps, is that the ground is relatively unsaturated at the moment, meaning rain will easily filter into the ground, removing it from the surface where it can cause flooding. Of course, that doesn’t take away from the fact that in the UK 3-4″ of rain is enough to cause flooding. Stay safe.