Posted 11:00pm 16th June 2019
The UK Met Office have issued a 2 day Thunderstorm warning for much of the Central and South Eastern part of the country for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
This may come as a surprise to you, as just a few days ago we were suggesting the possibility of a “burst of summer” this week. However, this now looks fairly limited. In the former article we did point out the growing risk of thunderstorms, saying that “some thunderstorms could form by Wednesday afternoon in the south east of England” which looks to be the case, however the forecast for warmth has gone a bit, well wrong, and we apologize.
The increased humidity is actually the root cause of the wet weather, providing more energy for the thundery outbreaks, which are most likely from late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Thankfully Monday itself looks mostly dry for the south, however we keep some showers going in the north. Temperatures will reach 20C somewhere in the south tomorrow, however cooler further north.
The Met Office warnings begin at 6pm on Tuesday to 9pm Wednesday, and covers much of the Midlands, as well as southern and eastern England.
> At the moment, computer models are suggesting that the most likely time for these thunderstorms to occur is through the day on Wednesday. Anywhere in the warning area is at risk of flooding, however it will be localized, as will be explained shortly. Thunderstorms dump their rain within a short space of time at high rates, meaning some surprised and localized flooding could occur through Wednesday. Therefore these downpours have the potential to catch people out rather unexpectedly.
> Some places could see over 40mm of rain within a few hours from these downpours, which is not far from the June average monthly rainfall for parts of England. Once again, Scotland and Northern Ireland are exempt from the warnings.
> It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly where these thunderstorms will be, the nature of thunderstorms is that they develop sporadically and don’t follow a set pattern, so although some places within the warning area could see 2 inches – 50mm+ of rain, some places a few miles away could see very little. I’d suggest that anyone in the warning area keeps a close eye on the forecast and is prepared for possible disruption to travel, especially on Wednesday.