Good evening. There is a risk of thunderstorms tonight, and those thunderstorms have begun to develop. As of 11:30pm tonight, scattered thunderstorms are currently affecting parts of Devon, Somerset, and other southern counties of England. These storms will affect the Midlands and areas further north overnight, as described below.
Lightning strikes latest
Credit: http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=12 – this is an excellent resource for live lighting strikes. I suggest checking them out!
The Forecast
These thunderstorms will steadily push north overnight, likely to affect parts of the M4 corridor, and into the Midlands through the early hours, giving some a real lightning show! By dawn the storms will head further north, affecting parts of Lincolnshire, Yorkshire, and other parts of Northern England, potentially even South East Scotland by dawn. Some storms may also form over Wales and head up towards the Irish Sea. These storms are difficult to forecast, so not everywhere will see them, they will be hit and miss.
Thunderstorm risk / warning map for tonight:
The most likely areas to see thunderstorms tonight are given below, however this is just a guide, not a definite!
Very locally (around 10% of the population) will see very frequent lightning producing power outages, structural damage, risk of fires.
Locally, so around 20% of the population will see frequent lightning, very heavy rain.
Where storms don’t form, it will be a horrendously muggy, hot night, especially in the south east. Some places wont get below 23C. As buildings in the UK tend to heat up quickly and then struggle to cool overnight, indoor temperatures for many will remain above 25C. However, the indication is that storms will be fairly widespread tonight, so most of you should see some lightning! ⚡
The Met Office warning:
The Met Office warning is pretty vague – pretty much all areas covered! Indicating that there is high uncertainty with regards to where the storms will be.