Tornadoes aren’t all that uncommon in the UK, which may be a surprise for some of you. The UK experiences roughly 30-40 tornadoes each year. Tornadoes are a result of winds from different directions in the same area. This causes rotation in the air and forms a tornado. These atmospheric conditions are typically found in unstable conditions such as those currently forecast for Sunday.
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The forecast for Sunday at present looks pretty unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures look very suppressed for the time of year, with highs of between 10 and 16C. There is also relatively high atmospheric CAPE (convective potential). This means that thunderstorms are likely.
Although these are unlikely to be severe in their own right, the conditions for rotation in the air look unusually “good”. This means that Sunday is likely to be a day of minor to moderate thunderstorms with a risk of hail and flash floods. There is also a risk of funnel clouds, i.e. a “tornado which does not reach the ground”, and also an usually high risk of a few tornadoes forming.
Any tornadoes which do form are unlikely to be severe. Most tornadoes which have been recorded in the past in the UK have been at the low end of the severity scale, i.e. EF0 and EF1 tornadoes. However, there are a few which stand out in history, such as the Birmingham tornado of 2005 which had maximum winds of 137mph, which is an EF3 tornado. This however does go to show that tornadoes do have the potential to produce disruption in the UK, so be aware on Sunday that a few are possible.