Like every year, 2018 is no exception and the media headlines are predicting “the coldest winter in a decade”.
It is not possible to have “the coldest winter for a decade” anyway since temperatures in the winter a decade ago we not even that especially cold.
What is possible is to have the coldest winter since 2009/10 or 2010/11. Both were cold. Are we facing the beast from the east again this year? Read on…
The truth is that yes the chance of a colder than average one again (like last winter), this winter is increased, but this is just a prediction, not certainty. We’re not saying 4 months of snow is going to happen though. That practically never happens in the UK. Even during the coldest winters (like 2009/10 and 1987), there were some milder phases which washed the snow away. The closest we have got is 1963 and that was only 3 months….
Some people say that “after a warm hot summer follows a bad winter”. And there is actually some merit to this. Interestingly, the same weather process that delivers summer warmth can also deliver us winter cold, I wont go into the science behind this but if you want to find out more head over to our Winter Forecast here.
The truth is also that no one can be certain just how cold or snowy our winter will be. The UK climate is among the most (if not) the most variable on the planet, so it is not realistic to say “it’s going to be the coldest!”. But just remember, there are some factors that support a colder than average winter this year like last, so have those shovels, that grit etc ready just like you did last year, but there is no need for hype and hysteria like is the case on some outlets however.