In last night’s update we spoke about the potential for a major snow storm to affect much of the Mid West and North East this weekend. That risk is still there – with the following regions indicated in the map below at a “Moderate risk” this weekend of a significant snow storm.
Before we get there though a little system that will develop moderate to light snowfall across north east Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Thursday night and lead into the north east – NY state and up to Maine for Friday will bring widely 2-4 inches of snowfall here.
Although the computer models continue to signal the distinct possibility / risk of high snowfall totals of widely over 10 inches this weekend in the north east from the more major, second winter storm / snowstorm mentioned, stretching from Illinois through Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York state into Maine, there is still time for downgrades and changes. However this is a risk that needs to be monitored. The week 16th to 23rd of January is statistically the 2nd most common week for snowstorms to affect the United States.
The GFS and ECMWF weather models are still keen on producing this snowstorm in their model output. We’d advise that people in the mid west, great lakes and north east keep a very close on on local forecasts and updates for the weekend to monitor this possibility. If these projections are correct then it’s more central areas, parts of Iowa, perhaps Northern Missouri, South/West Illinois that feel the affects on Saturday before the impacts stretch across the north east into Sunday.
This is what the GFS is predicting in terms of snowfall accumulations by Monday morning. Take these with a large pinch of salt as things may change between now and then:
The dividing line between rain / snow will be quite finite, so some areas are more likely to experience rain, especially further south. It’s still not clear whether I-95 and coastal cities such as NYC and Washington DC will experience snow or rain – which indicates that the details are still very far from being resolved with regards to this winter storm. So stay tuned.