The El Nino Southern Oscillation, an oscillation between warm and cold seas in the Pacific, is the most significant factor used to create a winter forecast and determining snow amounts for the United States. It is too early yet to try and predict snow amounts and details for particular states for winter 2018-2019 but this preliminary winter forecast will explain more.
A weak El Nino (warm Pacific) is predicted for winter 2018/19. El Nino’s generally increase the risk of blizzards and snow in the north east and keep the north west relatively snow-free. However because the El Nino is forecast to be on the weak side, things get interesting. Winter 2009-10 matches closely with the upcoming winter because it also had an El Nino and very low solar activity.
The sun has recently gone into a period of “solar minimum”, meaning that the level of sun spots recorded on the sun’s surface is very low. Winter 2009-10 had very low solar activity to. Low solar activity is thought to help aid the development of high pressure blocks which can create frigid cold in winter as they help drain cold off the poles. This means that our preliminary forecast for Winter 2018-2019, which is most likely going to be released on the 1st of October, is going to be for a chillier winter in the north east compared to last winter.
During last winter, 2017-18, the north west had the cold whilst the north east was forecast mild winter weather. This ran closely in line to what we predicted as well. We are thinking that there could be a complete opposite pattern this winter. Long range snow and winter forecasts are generally just experimental and not to be taken 100% seriously. Keep an eye on the snow and temperature predictions which will be released by us soon thought.