An EL NINO is a natural occurrence in the Pacific ocean – and is forecast for winter 2023. El Nino is basically warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific. Currently forecast to be between +0.5C and +1.5C above average by December, this is a weak to moderate El Nino. However, combined with very low solar activity, some parts of the U.S or U.K will most likely experience a very cold winter. El Nino’s affect on the polar jet stream producing a cold north east is well known in winter..
Winter predictions 2023.
WINTER 2023 BY LOCATION
1.United States
Current thinking suggests for winter 2023 the coldest weather compared to average will be in the north east and mildest driest weather in the north west due to a weak El Nino. However very low solar activity means that much of the U.S could experience intense winter weather and colder than average conditions although this at the moment is uncertain. The great lakes and north east has a higher chance this winter of seeing a Long term weather forecasting is not an exact science and this preliminary forecast by no means guarantees accuracy.
2. United Kingdom
The UK and Ireland have a very variable climate. It is impossible to predict more than 5-7 days out with much reasonable accuracy. However the current thinking suggests that this winter may be colder than average, like the previous one. Very low sunspot numbers suggests a cold long range forecast for the UK into the winter months as we are at the part of the solar cycle that supports cold winter weather.
Come back on the 10th of October for another issue of veryweather’s WINTER 2023 preliminary forecast for further information.