Category Archives: Long Range

“FRIGID COLD” into November: Polar Vortex to drop Bitter Cold Next Week




 

So far this Autumn temperatures have been milder than average. Temperatures are up to 2 to 6 ‘F higher than you would usually expect right now for much of the states, especially around the lakes and the north east, and the west. However there are some signs that temperatures will take a significant, sharp plunge next week, especially around the lakes, Minnesota, the Dakotas and into Ontario, with many computer models predicting a wave of intense cold to flood the north and east of the states, especially around the great lakes, from around the 6th of November.

There is some uncertainty, and it looks like the cold wont make it that far south and east, potentially stopping and lake Erie, keeping the east coast relatively mild. It’s too early to start forecasting snow events and the like, however there are solid signs of the potential for prolonged heavy snow for the northern lakes, Ontario next week Nov. 7th and Nov 8th.

Frigid snow blast predicted forecast U.S. of snow ahead

The ECMWF weather model (European model) is also predicting a big dive in temperature. Take a look at the current temperatures for the 31st of October 2018, today, and compare them to on the 9th of November.

Current temperatures at 5,000ft above the surface:

Predicted temperatures from the ECMWF weather model for the 9th of November 2018:

As you can see, a significant dive in temperature. There would be a high risk of snow to, some significant lake effect snow would be possible as well as winter storms and snow storms / systems. The data you should be aware of or “pencil into your diary” is from around the 6th of November, for a rapid cool down across many north eastern areas. The North West would be a little less cold and drier under the influence of high pressure. However I think we should keep a close eye on the snow forecast for later next week for northern states of the U.S.

veryweather winter usa 2018-2019 by location forecast

Official Winter 2018-2019 By Location Forecast: New EL NINO Alert







An El Nino, a spell of especially warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is significant for the Winter 2018-2019 weather forecast. The opposite of “La Nina”, an El Nino event is typically associated with a strong polar jet affecting the north eastern states of the United States from Quebec, Nova Scotia and into Maine to the Great Lakes, bringing colder than average weather and more persistent snowfalls, whilst the Pacific North West favors dry and temperatures slightly milder than average. 




United States Winter 2018-2019 Forecast Official 1

Explanation of the Winter Forecast: 1. United States.

1. El Nino outlook for Winter 2018-2019 We are speaking relative, so when the map suggests “less cold” over the Pacific Northwest for states like Oregon, Montana etc, it will still be cold there of course, however forecast “less cold” compared to the average. We are also suggesting slightly drier than average conditions for the north west of the U.S, mostly due to El Nino. This would result in slightly less snow than average. You can see more on how El Nino impacts the pattern here. There is a difference with El Nino this year, however. We are expecting a more “Central” based El Nino with the bulk of the warm Pacific sea surface temperatures centered over the central Pacific region as opposed to spread out equally thought the Pacific region. This could have the impact of weakening the El Nino signal slightly and “relax” the pattern we would see during a “uniform” El Nino event.

2. Low Solar Activity (Solar Minimum) forecast. In the recent long range weather information posted by us, we have mentioned this idea of solar minimum often. The current phase of solar cycle means there are barely any sunspots and, this has impacts on the outer magnetosphere, the layer that is between the atmosphere and space, as the sun is a significant driver of our climate. For Winter 2018-2019, a reduced or “minimal” level of solar activity could introduce more in the way of Northern Blocking, which strengthens the polar jet stream and amount of cold air that “falls” or empties out of the polar regions. This increases the cold signal for the United States. However El Nino usually restricts the cold to the North East of the country, so we can be fairly confident that the North East will see it’s fair share of cold plunges, noreasters and snow for winter forecast 2018-2019.

I can then conclude that we expect a drier, slightly less colder (compared to average) north west, colder north east, wetter south due to the southerly tracking jet associated with El Nnio, and significantly increased uncertainty in the central areas as per the grey zone indicated in our winter forecast. This zone of uncertainty is due to a weaker signal from the winter forecast factors.

Come back on the 1st of November for the next issue of veryweather’s Winter 2018-2019 by location U.S forecast.

Potential for Brutal Winter for parts of the US | Winter forecast 2018-2019 |







An El Nino, a spell of warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is significant for the Winter 2018-2019 weather forecast. The opposite of “La Nina”, an El Nino event is typically associated with a strong polar jet affecting the north eastern states of the United States from Quebec, Nova Scotia and into Maine to the Great Lakes, bringing colder than average weather and more persistent snowfalls, whilst the Pacific North West favors dry and temperatures slightly milder than average. After a UK Winter Forecast instead? Click here to get more information. 




United States Winter 2018-2019 Forecast Official 1

Explanation of the Winter Forecast: 1. United States.

As you can see a significant three way split is evident for the winter period. The southern states, from Tx to Fl experience a rather wet and cool winter with temperatures slightly colder than average and “high” precipitation. Temperature wise the north west is warmer thanks to a strong ridge or area of high pressure producing a fair deal of settled weather, and temperatures will be higher than average, but of course this is the upper North West and North West Canada we are talking about so it will still be freezing, but perhaps not as snowy here in November to December as it was during last winter. And the upper north west: an active polar jet increasing the snow totals prediction for winter 2018-2019 to higher than average, slightly.

Factors influencing this year’s winter outlook for the US

1. El Nino outlook for Winter 2018-2019 We are speaking relative, so when the map suggests “less cold” over the Pacific Northwest for states like Oregon, Montana etc, it will still be cold there of course, however forecast “less cold” compared to the average. We are also suggesting slightly drier than average conditions for the north west of the U.S, mostly due to El Nino. This would result in slightly less snow than average. You can see more on how El Nino impacts the pattern here. There is a difference with El Nino this year, however. We are expecting a more “Central” based El Nino with the bulk of the warm Pacific sea surface temperatures centered over the central Pacific region as opposed to spread out equally thought the Pacific region. This could have the impact of weakening the El Nino signal slightly and “relax” the pattern we would see during a “uniform” El Nino event.

2. Low Solar Activity (Solar Minimum) forecast. In the recent long range weather information posted by us, we have mentioned this idea of solar minimum often. The current phase of solar cycle means there are barely any sunspots and, this has impacts on the outer magnetosphere, the layer that is between the atmosphere and space, as the sun is a significant driver of our climate. For Winter 2018-2019, a reduced or “minimal” level of solar activity could introduce more in the way of Northern Blocking, which strengthens the polar jet stream and amount of cold air that “falls” or empties out of the polar regions. This increases the cold signal for the United States. However El Nino usually restricts the cold to the North East of the country, so we can be fairly confident that the North East will see it’s fair share of cold plunges, noreasters and snow for winter forecast 2018-2019.

veryweather winter usa 2018-2019 by location forecast

El Nino Declared!! | Winter 2018-2019 U.S Forecast |




An EL NINO is a natural occurrence in the Pacific ocean – and is forecast for winter 2018-2019. El Nino is basically warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific. Currently forecast to be between +0.5C and +1.5C above average by December, this is a weak to moderate El Nino. However, combined with very low solar activity, some parts of the U.S or U.K will most likely experience a very cold winter. El Nino’s affect on the polar jet stream producing a cold north east is well known in winter..

Winter predictions 2018-2019.




WINTER 2018-2019 BY LOCATION

veryweather winter usa 2018-2019 by location forecast

 

1.United States

Current thinking suggests for winter 2018-2019 the coldest weather compared to average will be in the north east and mildest driest weather in the north west due to a weak El Nino. However very low solar activity means that much of the U.S could experience intense winter weather and colder than average conditions although this at the moment is uncertain. The great lakes and north east has a higher chance this winter of seeing a Long term weather forecasting is not an exact science and this preliminary forecast by no means guarantees accuracy.




2. United Kingdom

The UK and Ireland have a very variable climate. It is impossible to predict more than 5-7 days out with much reasonable accuracy. However the current thinking suggests that this winter may be colder than average, like the previous one. Very low sunspot numbers suggests a cold long range forecast for the UK into the winter months as we are at the part of the solar cycle that supports cold winter weather.

Come back on the 10th of October for another issue of veryweather’s WINTER 2018-2019 preliminary forecast for further information.

Warning: Early Significant SNOW to target Northern Areas Next Week Get Snow Prediction |




After an early cold shot affected Canada and a record 12.9″ of snowfall was recorded in Calgary, it’s now the turn of the US to (in places in the north) see it’s first significant notable snow event of the season. A rather small area is forecast to experience snow flurries on Sunday afternoon and into Monday in the northern Rocky mountains, in an area from eastern Wyoming (Gilette) and into western South Dakota (Cluster/ Rapid city) and into western North Dakota. Up to 10 inches of snow may fall locally however largely 2-8 inches will fall. Snow may fall to elevations as low as 2,600ft. However it’s next week when significant snow could impact a larger area of the U.S.
Snow Forecast 2018-2019.







This snow will be fairly localized and, shouldn’t cause too many problems. However there are some signs that we could see a next more significant band of snow work across parts of the U.S. during the middle of next week especially Wednesday through Friday. Some computer simulations are expecting heavy snow through Eastern Wyoming into North Dakota and Montana through Tuesday and Wednesday, and perhaps even affecting northern Minnesota Wednesday through Friday, before moving through Manitoba and much of Ontario. This winter storm could potentially dump snow to elevations as low as 1,000ft, with 2 to 8 inches also possible.

Notices:
1) This early snow storm could have significant impacts through mid next week in the Northern Rockies & MO/ Manitoba / Ontario regions and regions stated. Mostly because it is earlier than you would usually expected.
2) The forecast can and will change slightly between now and then, this is not an exact forecast and is just an indication as to what may be ahead.
3) Stay safe.

U.S Winter Weather Forecast: Chance of a Brutal Winter




Every decade the amount of solar storms and sun spots emitted by the sun drops drastically and we enter “solar minimum”. The last solar minimum occurred in 2009 – 2010 and that happened to be when the UK saw it’s last “proper” severe winter – the United States also had quite rough, frigid winter weather during that time to.

Winter predictions 2018-2019.




WINTER 2018-2019 BY LOCATION

veryweather winter us 2018 2019 by location forecast

1. United States.
We are currently thinking a colder than average winter is increasingly likely for those north eastern states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, along the NY coast up to Maine and the great lakes with higher than average snow fall accumulation. We think that the north west has the most likely chance of a mild winter with temperatures above average and drier than average conditions in a swathe from the far west of the mid west all the way up to Alaska. We think El Nino will influence the far south ie Tx / Fl with increased precipitation. A swathe of “near normal” is indicated for central states above as this is where uncertainty is highest. Be aware that nothing is set in stone and this is just preliminary.




The atmosphere and space is interconnected and when these changes begin to affect the outer layer of the atmosphere where “space weather” occurs, the changes also affect the lower atmosphere where day to day weather occurs. This is when things can get interesting. Large areas of “blocking” can form which stop normal weather patterns and can introduce brutal cold and increased snow in the forecast.

For the UK things are much more complicated, signs suggest cold snaps will be more frequent in the following winter, just like the previous one, however it’s uncertain if we will see the same degree of severe cold experienced during the recent beast from the east. No one can answer with certainty these long range weather questions, but what we can say is that you should be prepared for a repeat. The same atmospheric conditions that brought the 2010 winter are repeating themselves this year, although that does not guarantee a cold winter, the risk is certainly there.

Confidence in forecast. United States: 65%. United Kingdom 40%.
Why is this? Confidence in long range weather predictions is never 100%, however since the United Kingdom’s weather processes are more complicated and are not as heavily affected by global patterns and oscillations such as El Nino, confidence is decreased compared to the U.S where it is slightly higher.