Early warning for risk of flooding next week; the detail.

Low pressure is the reason behind all this, and with just that in the forecast this coming week, concerns are drifting towards the risk of flooding.

The following chart below shows how much rain (in millimeters) is forecast to fall between now, and next Thursday. The deeper oranges highlight totals of 75mm or more, that’s 3 inches of rain. That’s enough to produce a risk of flooding. The computer models, used for weather forecasting, have begun to highlight Wednesday and Thursday as being potentially very wet days, however there is scope for this to change.

In Summer when low pressure becomes consistent around the UK, and with it it’s associated weather fronts, we increase the risk of flooding. Summer 2007 was a prime example, with flooding rife across the UK. We’re not expecting an event to that extent at all, however it highlights the risk when Summers get groggy across the UK.

Rainfall accumulation prediction, up to Thursday (CREDIT: Meteociel.fr) 

Monday: A continuation of the cool, mixed bag that the weekend gave us. Temperatures below average, and a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Winds will be that lighter, but will still be brisk in the north. More in the way of showers again and these could be heavy, especially across the Midlands for example.

Tuesday: Winds backing into the north east, so rather disappointing on the east coast, and in land. More in the way of brightness out west, West Wales and parts of Ireland maybe. Temperatures once again on the cool side, at just 14 to 19C almost across the board. There will be some rain, hard to put detail on it though, perhaps across Northern England the risk is more pronounced.

Wednesday: Some uncertainty once again, but the most likely scenario is more unsettled weather, perhaps more prolonged rain in the North, but this positioning could change. Remaining cool, very cool where rain becomes persistent. In the North winds will be stronger yet.

Rest of the week: It will likely remain cool for the rest of the week. However it could become very cool or even cold later on, with temperatures significantly below average. Yes, there will be some rain, but there will also be a plethora of drier conditions mixed in, but it will be unsettled. Temperatures could hang around the 12 to 17C mark for the rest of the week, and even into the weekend.

The flood risk: in the locations mentioned that look most likely to receive the heavier rain (Northern England, for example), towards the middle of the week, there is a risk of flooding. This isn’t a major risk, and is reduced because the last 12 months have been fairly dry, meaning that the ground is less saturated, however I’d suggest keeping a close eye on met office warnings as we progress through the week, I suspect some could be issued. In Summer added vegetation makes it harder for flood waters to infiltrate into the earth, increasing flood risk.