All the talk is on next week’s heatwave, however before we get there there are several warnings in force. Head over to our warning page for more detailed information:
35°C is definitely within realms of possibility for next week. It may be difficult to believe that such high temperatures are on the cards, however meteorological data from the met office and other leading provides such as the European centre of medium range weather forecasting (ECMWF) are suggesting that the hot weather is increasingly likely.
Lets chunk days of similar conditions into chunks, that way we can begin to break down things further.
Sunday to Tuesday:
Characterized by a west east split. On Sunday temperatures will be notably higher in south east England and the east Midlands, perhaps up to the mid 20’s Celsius. In the west and north (West Midlands, Wales, SW England, NW England, Northern Ireland and Scotland), temperatures wont become that high, and we will see a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, later becoming thundery, locally.
By early Monday the wet weather will be affecting Scotland, the borders and into Northern Ireland. Somewhat clearer, and very warm weather will affect the central and southern parts of the country. However increasing instability may begin to trigger off some further thunderstorms in the west, anywhere from the Midlands, down to the SW and into North West England is at risk, of these downpours. Again the East mids, East Anglia and the SE enjoying the most of the warmth and sunny weather. Temperatures a littler higher than Sunday, touching 28C perhaps?
Tuesday will be a similar day, a mixture of sunshine and scattered thundery showers in the west and sunny spells widely for central and eastern areas. Very warm to hot in the sunshine. Again cooler for Scotland and Northern Ireland with a continued risk of showers. In the south and east temperatures may hit 30C (86F) given sunshine.
Wednesday to Thursday:
The REAL heat arrives. Below are the GFS forecast maximum temperatures for Wednesday, not to be taken literally. As you can see, 32C+ is a distinct possibility as the heat builds in the south east. However by this stage, the warmth will become more widespread. Widely above 27C for England and Wales (inland) and into the 20’s for Scotland and Northern Ireland – these conditions continuing into Thursday. There’s significant uncertainty as to just how hot it will get, the chance of hitting 30C in the south east is near 90%, of hitting 35C and that drops to 50%.
Rest of the week? UNCERTAIN – ask us next week.
How long will the hot weather last?
There is a big question mark about how long the hot weather will last. As ever with weather forecasting, anything more than a few days out needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, especially so when we are dealing with “rather unsual” set ups like the one next week. There is a fine balance between continued hot weather, and a big thunderstorm break down for the later stages of next week.
Where and when the thunderstorms will occur?
A conveyer belt of thundery rain will affect central, western and northern parts from Sunday – Tuesday with parts of Wales and Scotland seeing very high rainfall totals. Largely across western England and Wales 20-50mm will fall, however on some Welsh uplands and Scottish highlands near 100mm (4 inches) of rain could fall during this period.
The forecast details for the thunderstorms becomes increasingly uncertain during the remainder of the week.