You’ve probably heard that the forecast for Friday and the weekend is giving forecasters a headache – well, it still is. There’s a lot of uncertainty about the forecast, mainly because the exact location of the low this weekend is difficult to pinpoint – and this will relate to where the strong winds, heavy rain and yes potentially some “hill snow” will be.
The Met Office have 2 weather warnings in force for Friday and Saturday. Both are for heavy rain, with the associated risk of flooding. Some areas could see up to 50mm (2 inches) of rainfall.
That amount of rainfall is enough to produce surface water flooding issues, and potentially high river levels in places, especially over Wales, the Midlands and Northern England. Please also note – some adverse weather conditions may occur outside of the warning areas – the warning areas should not be thought of as “boundaries”, more indicators as to where the worst conditions are likely to occur. Of course, “likelihood” and what usually happens after completely different things.
With that in mind, take a look at the GFS total rainfall accumulation chart for the next 4 days. Notice the higher values in a “central swathe” of the UK. Some computer models are now suggesting a more prolonged period of rainfall for central areas with the potential for some serious rainfall accumulations of 3-4 inches in places. A pretty wet Friday and weekend ahead with the likelihood of some flooding, especially within the circled zone.
Gale force winds in the South
There’s also the potential for some very strong winds. Gusts could approach 50-60mph in the southern quarter of the UK, especially along the south coast, on Friday evening and into Saturday. Enough to cause some localized transport issues.
Risk of snow to northern hills – with a big question mark
And to top it off, there’s also a risk of some hill snow. This is only a slight chance, however if you’re traveling over the Pennines, or high ground in the north on Friday or Saturday, keep an eye on the forecast, as there is the potential for some wintry weather. North Yorkshire Dales maybe. Nothing is set in stone regarding snowfall yet, and it may not materialize, however it is worth mentioning, as the first potential “flurries” of the season over hills.