The jet stream remains in a highly active state. Strong “upper level” winds are forecast to remain in place for the remainder of this week, fueling some deep areas of low pressure and as a result some quite stormy conditions at times across Britain. Main risks include wind and rain, the later of course of particular concern given the recent and in some places ongoing flooding situation. Winds also pose some concern, likely gusting close to 70mph for some parts of the UK. This is all down to Storm “Jorge”, which will be gearing up to affect the UK this weekend.
Graph image below: position of the current jet stream (Meteociel.fr). The Jet stream is a little south than normal, which is helping drive the stormy conditions into Britain. Usually, the jet stream is further north and as a result so are the associated stormy lows.
The Warnings
The Met Office have, once again, issued a plethora of weather warnings for the UK. Those in force for tomorrow concern mainly rain, which is expected to be heavy at times across western areas. Yellow, “be aware” weather-warnings are in force for heavy rainfall for South West England, Wales, North West England and Northern Ireland. The main risk is river flooding of course, given some catchments are so saturated that any significant rain poses a real flood risk and is likely to raise river levels rather rapidly.
The focus on Saturday extends from rain to both wind and rain, with wind warnings fairly widespread over the country. Of course, for more information please access metoffice.gov.uk. High resolution weather model data suggests that gusts of 50-60mph are likely even well in land, whilst gusts over 70mph are possible across western coasts and hills on both Saturday and Sunday. As a result, some travel disruption is possible, especially to higher routes concerning high sided vehicles & ferry services etc.
It isn’t all “doom and gloom”, some brighter and drier interludes will be had. It will be rather chilly though – average temperatures at best and at times a little below average. This also linked to the track of the jet stream, the southerly track helps to encourage cold air injection from the rear end of low pressure systems, i.e. North Westerly winds. Hence, we may see further wintry showers at times in north western areas, especially to high ground. There will likely be a dusting of snow tomorrow (Friday) for some northern hills for a time.