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Some parts of the UK will see Snow tonight

Some, but not all! Remember you can access all of our updates (short and long range) via the homepage. You can also access some UK Weather Charts. Right then, it’s already a lot colder for 90% of the country away from the far SW of England & Ireland. Tonight will be a cold one with a patchy frost.

Snow? There’ll be significant snowfall for inland areas of Northern Scotland. Places like Aviemore, Braemar and parts of the A9 road could see 5-10cm possibly tonight. There’ll be sporadic showers in the North, especially around coasts, places like the north of Northern Ireland and northern England could see some showers tonight. But unlike northern Scotland the showers further south will be more of a wintry mix with rain, sleet and hail to lower levels and snow on hills. It’s possible that we could see a more organized area of rain, sleet and wet snow push through central and south eastern England early tomorrow morning giving some wet flakes of snow that’ll probably struggle to settle.

UK Snow Risk: tonight and tomorrow. 

So away from Scotland, any snow tonight will be “trivial” and wont really be disruptive. Ice may be more of an issue with the low temperatures. 0 to -2C in the countryside and +2 to -1 in towns and cities. Perhaps more significantly tomorrow will be sleet and snow showers running down North Sea facing coasts, in particular the coastal areas of east Yorkshire, eastern Lincolnshire, the Lincs. wolds and parts of Norfolk could actually see some significant snow showers tomorrow. 2-3cm could fall in a few places here. Elsewhere it looks largely dry tomorrow but quite a cold day with highs of just 2C in Scotland, 5C in the South.

Friday and the weekend: Friday sees a very cold start with a widespread frost and icy patches in places. Rain however will spread into Ireland, South West England and Wales later in the day, and as it pushes inland towards the Midlands, parts of Northern England especially on the Pennines, we could see some snow. The forecast for Friday is causing a lot of headaches and uncertainties as various computer models handle the situation differently. So my advice is stay tuned to the forecast. There could be a few cm of snow for places like the Peak District, but this is far from a certainty.

The weekend remains cold but probably becoming more gloomy and dank with some hill fog as opposed to the “clear and cold” weather tomorrow.

Next week: likely to be cold, but how cold is the question.

Next week will probably start off how this week left off. Cold. Feeling wintry to with a significant risk of snow for Northern Hills at first, but there’s a chance that more southern areas and to the south could see some of this later in the week, again this is quite uncertain and there’s a small chance things could become milder, however it is now increasingly likely that the UK will be affected by more “seasonable” weather with wintriness possible.

Prepare now: Major blizzard to paralyze sections of the North East this weekend

This is a major blizzard. Winter storm Harper (named) is currently providing over 25 million USA citizens with either a winter storm warning, watch or advisory with brutal snow, ice and blizzard conditions expected in the next 0 to 48 hours.

1.) PREPARE. It’s now looking very likely that interior portions of the North East will see blockbuster snowfall totals and combined with strong winds this major blizzard here will be immobilizing and life threatening.

2.) TAKE ACTION. Take action now to secure the safety of yourself and citizens around you, keep a close eye on NOAA warnings at that remain functional during the govt. shutdown.

3.) Be Safe. Be safe during this weekend. This storm is a meteorological beauty (it is scientifically awseome), but life threatening. It has already brought several feet of snowfall to the mountains of California and is on a track eastwards and will score 75% of the Northern States with at least 1 inch of snowfall.

Winter Storm Harper risk map:

The worst affected areas will be the upper North East. Parts of eastern New York State, into central Vermont, Central New Hampshire, Maine and into Newfoundland could see 2 to 4 feet of snowfall.

Next up is a larger area scoping the north of Massachusetts, a larger portion of New York State inclusing the west, north and center of the state. The north of Pennsylvania, potentially places like the Chicago Metro locally due to enhancement of precipitation from lake Michigan, and eastern parts of South Dakota and potentially the south western part of Minnesota. Here lesser totals of at least 8 inches pretty widely are likely with more intense totals of 12 to 14 inches in some higher ground areas. Of course these are just rough figures, and the lines between heavy totals and light totals on the northern flank of the storm and between heavy snow, freezing rain and heavy rain on the south of the storm are very fine.

In the red areas travel really will be impossible, the dark orange near impossible, the lighter orange “moderately challenging” and the yellow “a little challenging”. Of course with the risk of freezing rain for cities perhaps along the western flank of the I-95 corridor that may not see the highest totals (according to the current track of the storm), may be more significantly affected by this storm as an ice storm.

Therefore I’d stay tuned to local forecasts to monitor any potential changes in this storm. A fairly insignificant change to the track of the storm by just 50-100 miles can change the conditions felt at the surface drastically for millions of people. Winds will be strong to so snow drifts will form in rural areas cutting off rural communities for potentially days and leading to travel misery. Freezing rain through Saturday & Sunday is likely for portions of the North East and aiding this storm in becoming a dangerous feature.

Stay tuned to winter storm warnings etc at

Chart 92 snow cold ECM run

UK Weather Outlook: Growing potential for cold second half of January

Yes, so far winter has been mild across the United Kingdom with winds generally in from a westerly direction. However there’s an increased consensus within the numerical computer models for colder weather for the final half of January. This isn’t to say that the UK will be plastered with cold and snow for final ten days of the month, it’s just to say that the chance of it turning properly cold (like, it will feel like Winter finally), is growing. One might say that the upcoming cold has been assisted by the recent Stratospheric “split”, during which the tight polar vortex which is like a reinforcement to cold over the Arctic breaks up into little pieces, making it easier for those cold temps to drain out via those little “pieces”…

Turning colder this week:

The first signs of a change are evident this week with temperatures falling in the north tomorrow before the cold air eventually seeps further south on Wednesday. There will be some wintry showers tomorrow, significant snowfall for parts of Northern Scotland with 5-10cm expected by Thursday on high ground via showers, with some light wintry showers draped around northern coasts, perhaps some flurries for the Pennines and Snowdonia to. To start Thursday most in land areas will be dry with a patchy frost, but early on there will still be some wintry showers of rain, sleet and light snow draped around some coastal areas.

Pink = Snow, blue = Rain. Notice the deep blue colors over northern Scotland;

Dry and cold for Thursday:

Thursday will be a colder than average day, the first of possibly quite a few, with highs of 3/4C for the Midlands, 6C on the South Coast and 1-3C for Scotland. Early Friday looks like a cold one, many central and eastern areas seeing a moderate frost with high humidity levels, temperatures down to -4C locally.

Wintry on Friday;

Although there is significant uncertainty, as a weather front progresses into the cold air on Friday there’s the potential for some snowfall. Exactly where and how much, and the exact timing remains uncertain and will be resolved by Thursday. However given that this event is now 3 or so days away there is increasing confidence that some areas will be affected by snow. The most likely areas are parts of Northern England, Wales and the North Midlands, that’s not to say snow is forecast in these areas but the highest chances are these areas. Keep an eye on the forecast. There’s the prospect of something a little milder for the south west simultaneously, with temperatures rising to 6 to 8C in the south west perhaps.

Chilly weekend;

The weekend’s forecast depends on how Friday’s slider low materializes, so confidence is low. However we keep that risk of some snow for northern hills and keep it chilly. Where skies clear early on Saturday a frost is possible and more especially on Sunday morning, gloomy for eastern coasts and in general perhaps quite a cloudy weekend; with the chance of some light rain / hill snow into Scotland later on…

The week of 21st to 25th of January 2019:

This looks like another chilly week. Temperatures are likely to be held below average thanks to a “blocked” pattern – meaning that the usual west to east flow across the North Atlantic is blocked and instead cold air is allowed to drain down from the Arctic. Uncertain as regards to how cold, there’s a low (20%) chance of very cold weather and easterly winds, with a 50% chance of generally cool-cold weather, and a 30% chance of average or milder than average temperatures; so the week look set up for cold as it stands.

And yes, with colder than average temperatures in January comes with it the risk of snowfall, especially to higher ground. I would normally disregard charts 7 days away as being highly uncertain but given recent Stratospheric happenings; charts like these becoming a reality (this one is very cold and quite snowy), this could (could), become a reality;

Chart 92 snow cold ECM run

Monday morning update… Snow? UK 5-10 day outlook

Good morning – a really boring couple of days coming up weather wise (yet again!). Today (Monday) looks boring with just a few light showers in the north and west, drier in the south. It’s cold enough for some of those light showers to turn to snow above 200-300m in Northern Scotland but no where else. Skies clear for south eastern parts tonight and here we run the risk of a frost in rural areas to start Tuesday. A bit brighter here for tomorrow however further north we keep a rash of cloud and a few light showers dotted about but nothing major. Winds will begin to increase later on Tuesday heralding a change..

It turns increasingly unsettled from the north west by the early hours of Wednesday with lots of rain tracking south east. It’s likely most of us will pick up at least some moderate bursts of rain on Wednesday but once the cold front sweeps away (hopefully it will have done by tea time), it will turn drier into the evening for the mainland, but colder. Highs of “just” 5/6C (Scotland -50C) but I mean that’s only slightly below average… However, there will be a rash of wintry showers for the north west, Scotland parts of Ireland, hills of Wales and parts of the Pennines, scattered minor accumulations of snow on high ground areas in the north of 1-5cm above 300 metres for Scotland and even more scattered in the Pennines but there will be a touch for some.

The below chart shows precipitation type forecast from the NMM model for midnight on Thursday (Wednesday night). There’s some support for a trough to enhance the precipitation activity in the far north during this time frame. This could bring a sprinkling of snow to places like Durham and Scotland, especially but perhaps not limited to higher ground. Pink indicates snow, blue rain.

Thursday looks like a bit of a restbite, a patchy frost and chilly start but a good deal of sunshine through the day. Wintry showers continuing around coasts in the north west but becoming a bit lighter through the day. It will  The weather is likely to remain on the chilly side into the weekend. Some frost. Some rain. And potentially some snow. One system which is giving forecasters a headache is the potential slider low forecast for Friday. This has the potential to produce snow as the moisture associated with it engages with the cold air at the surface over the British Isles. Saying where, when, and how much is uncertain however I’d say parts of the Midlands, and especially on high ground could see a little on Friday and into Saturday, but this is prone to changes (upgrades and downgrades). For now it’s just a possibility…

So a cold weekend either way, with a ridge of high pressure modelled to push in on Sunday / Monday. So there are differences between the GFS, ECM and UKMO with regards to the weekend’s disturbance, but all 3 have a fairly similar outcome for Sunday / Monday which is this ridge building in. So probably an enhanced risk of frost later on in the weekend and into Monday, but still some minor wintry potential which needs monitoring. There is good consensus for very disturbed weather later into next week, probably from Tuesday the 22nd on wards with a wrath of low pressure and the weather associated with it. However it would not be particularly mild, as the air with the low looks rather cold. So central and northern areas have to watch out for wintry showers and snow showers maybe next week, watch out for the risk. And stay tuned to the forecast :D.

If you happen to scroll down this page and find snow warnings, they’re for the USA.

UK Weather Outlook – Turning “Chilly” but will it turn Very Cold?

I’m going to discuss the model output for the final half of January and also any wintry potential. There’s enough of both to get my teeth into, and although there’s no real end to this tedious winter in sight, bar the warmth coming in a few months, there are some interesting things developing…

Just wanted to remind you what snow looks like 😉

Tentative signs of something colder for the final half of January still remain very much alive in the model output. A cold front will sweep south on Wednesday, timing a little uncertain however it looks like this weather front, which could be fairly active, will sweep south fairly early on Wednesday to introduce colder conditions into the afternoon. This colder polar maritime / Arctic air will be producing some showers in the north on a fairly unstable north westerly flow. These showers could fall as snow to some fairly “modest” elevations in the north so don’t be surprised, if you live in say Scotland, the far north of England and perhaps Northern Ireland to wake up to a touch of snow to start Thursday. Further south, for the bulk of England and Wales temperatures will be higher so snowflakes will be limited to higher grounds, by the most part.

The following chart shows the precipitation type forecast for midnight Wednesday night into Thursday, the pink indicates where the model is forecasting snow to fall, green sleet and blue rain. As you can see there is the indication for wintry showers for much of Scotland, and some of those pushing into the far north of England probably associated with troughs and disturbances in the flow. It’s possible we could see one of these “troughs” move south on Wednesday night which could bring a little snow to parts of Northern England, detail with regards to this will be available nearer the time though. Most areas, especially in land across England and Wales look rather dry on Wednesday night.

A cold one into Thursday with a widespread ground frost, air frost in the north. Another cold one on Thursday however most places should get a decent amount of dry weather, perhaps turning milder and wetter from the west later, possibility of snow to northern hills.

The uncertainty really peps up from around Friday on wards (18th Jan). The ICON (German computer model) and GFS are keen on introducing less cold Atlantic air from the west on Friday (in some instances starting as early as Thursday), however contrastingly the UKMO and ECMWF are more keen on weakening the Atlantic lows and building a weak ridge of high pressure to our north and west during next weekend, thus keeping it rather cold. So there are question marks with regards to this period. As the Atlantic tries to reassert itself next Friday / associated weekend there’s a risk of some transitional “snow”, however it is really a long way off to be discussing snow risk.

It’s tough to decide which solution is more likely to verify at this stage, both GFS (more progressive) and ECM (more blocked = colder) solutions are probably equally possible. What’s also interesting is that the GFS and ICON are keen on a north westerly air flow into the following week and back end of the weekend, Sunday 20th/21st, so although this slight mild “blip” is possible as the warm sector arrives next Friday, the chance of a return to colder conditions really is alive into the weekend and following week. Zonality (west to east flow – generally mild) looks weakened in the next 10 or so and although “severe cold” is by no means in the forecast and very limited in options, this idea of a “wavy” jet stream leaves the British Isles open to opportunities from next weekend on wards. And yes, with those opportunities may come the risk of snow.

Quite technical for the average person walking down the street, but this blog is intended for the weather enthusiast.

I’ve cherry picked a few perturbations from the GFS that caught my eye and also look quite feesable. (Just click on them to load them up).

This one has a very southerly tracking yet stream and attempts to produce northern blocking. The result is cold weather and snow events at the surface as early as next weekend. The warm sector is quickly shunted out of the way by “cold zonality” (cold westerlies) and later on cold air is dragged into an unstable cold pool. Quite an interesting one and entirely feesable.

This one is more interesting. We eventually set up an easterly flow next Sunday. This indicates why there is vast uncertainty in the forecast from Thursday on wards. This solution is also possible but has little support.

Credit: Meteociel.

This morning’s ECMWF run is indeed very cold and quite snowy in fantasy island, on the “extreme end” of the options available but also entirely feesable giving the background signals (the recent SSW). The idea I have personally is that we’ll probably see an attempt at Atlantic westerlies next Thursday / Friday and for a time it may turn milder, however I expect colder conditions could begin to “build back” into the weekend. There’s also wintry potential during this time frame. As this is a long range prediction, it is “uncertain” as always. Hope you enjoyed the quick read.

Signs of a Cold end to January

Following a mild start to winter for not just the United Kingdom but also large parts of North America, thoughts are focused on the chances of something more wintry for the final half of winter. There’s still 6-7 weeks left of meteorological winter left and 9 weeks or so of astronomical winter – so plenty of time to pick up some snow and cold weather.

The stratospheric profile continues to put pressure on the current mild set up which although shows no sign of being completely reversed, is being put under considerable pressure which results in the chances of cold in the final half of winter being somewhat increased.

Not all sudden stratospheric warmings are created equal though – some fail to propogate their easterly winds down to the surface. Events of winter 2016/17 remind us of that – a healthy SSW following by a failed propogation. More often that not, if the surface environments are not supportive of cold and easterly flows to begin with, then the affects of the SSW will be “fought with friction”.

This is why, I, am not forecasting severe winter weather into the rest of January and into February – although it could happen. Instead I am more confident of “ups and downs” for the remainder of winter. The final half of winter is likely to produe a collective Central England Temperature below the first half, however probably as cold as the first half was mild, so this winter I’d say is likely to come out with a temperature anomaly above average – although I could be wrong.

Cooler incursion looking increasingly likely next week

As per the recent model output, there is now increasing likelihood of a colder incursion next Thursday & Friday. Whether this will be an extended incursion is uncertain, however computer models are quite keen on building a weak area of high pressure to the north west of the UK later next week into the weekend of the 19th / 20th of January. This could develop more of an easterly flow across the British Isles during this time frame.

In the British Isles anything more than about 5 days ahead as a forecast is uncertain, so although the risk is there the uncertainty is also there. This is well established in today’s model output with the GFS making slightly less of the northerly incursion next Thursday / Friday.

This ensemble forecast from shows temperatures dropping off late next week and we actually set up quite a prolonged cold signal from the various members.

Although the GFS 12z is somewhat of an outlier in the way that it handes the northwesterly / northerly wind next week, the general concensus from the ensemble group is quite a chilly one with an increased chance of snow towards the final third of January.

Of course, usual uncertainties apply. Snow is tricky to forecast and details with regards to a snow forecast can not be produced until say 48 hours prior. Having said that though, if the current model output is correct then snow fans have a reason to be interested in the outlook. The idea of a southerly tracking jet stream combined with “weak” blocking to the north west, which is not the classic very strong northern blocking that occured during the best ever spells in the UK, like last February’s beast from the east, is not neccesarrily a bad one. It can produce some decent snow events and some level of cold weather. December 2017 had a similar set up and large parts of the country had some healthy snow events.

Next week’s initial northerly has the potential to bring snow – exactly where and how much is uncertain. Wintry showers on Thursday & Friday are possible for northern areas and some places, especially on high ground run the risk of some snow cover.