U.S Winter Weather Forecast: Chance of a Brutal Winter




Every decade the amount of solar storms and sun spots emitted by the sun drops drastically and we enter “solar minimum”. The last solar minimum occurred in 2009 – 2010 and that happened to be when the UK saw it’s last “proper” severe winter – the United States also had quite rough, frigid winter weather during that time to.

Winter predictions 2018-2019.




WINTER 2018-2019 BY LOCATION

veryweather winter us 2018 2019 by location forecast

1. United States.
We are currently thinking a colder than average winter is increasingly likely for those north eastern states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, along the NY coast up to Maine and the great lakes with higher than average snow fall accumulation. We think that the north west has the most likely chance of a mild winter with temperatures above average and drier than average conditions in a swathe from the far west of the mid west all the way up to Alaska. We think El Nino will influence the far south ie Tx / Fl with increased precipitation. A swathe of “near normal” is indicated for central states above as this is where uncertainty is highest. Be aware that nothing is set in stone and this is just preliminary.




The atmosphere and space is interconnected and when these changes begin to affect the outer layer of the atmosphere where “space weather” occurs, the changes also affect the lower atmosphere where day to day weather occurs. This is when things can get interesting. Large areas of “blocking” can form which stop normal weather patterns and can introduce brutal cold and increased snow in the forecast.

For the UK things are much more complicated, signs suggest cold snaps will be more frequent in the following winter, just like the previous one, however it’s uncertain if we will see the same degree of severe cold experienced during the recent beast from the east. No one can answer with certainty these long range weather questions, but what we can say is that you should be prepared for a repeat. The same atmospheric conditions that brought the 2010 winter are repeating themselves this year, although that does not guarantee a cold winter, the risk is certainly there.

Confidence in forecast. United States: 65%. United Kingdom 40%.
Why is this? Confidence in long range weather predictions is never 100%, however since the United Kingdom’s weather processes are more complicated and are not as heavily affected by global patterns and oscillations such as El Nino, confidence is decreased compared to the U.S where it is slightly higher.