Weather Warning: Major Thunderstorm outbreak likely tonight

Following on from a very warm / hot day, some places tonight run the risk of intense thunderstorms. Notice the word “risk”, used because thunderstorms are difficult to forecast, and this is just a probability forecast, stating which areas have the highest risk.

Risk time: Tuesday 9pm until Wednesday 11am.

Most at risk areas: Northern England, NE Wales, Southern Scotland. 

Anyhow, using the map below as a guide, the consensus is for storms to develop across central areas overnight before pushing north into the early hours. Parts of Lincolnshire, Yorkshire, Pennine regions, North West England, and up into the borders of Scotland are most at risk, however scattered storms may develop either side of this area. Storms are most likely to develop into the early hours – when most will be asleep. However I’m sure some of you will find sleeping difficult given the high humidity index around tonight.

UK Thunderstorm Risk Map:

More information: Heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds and also an outside chance of some hail may be produced by these storms. Most computer models show the storms developing within the area outlined on the map, but this is just a rough guide, and there is a fairly wide area that have suitable conditions for storms to develop tonight, with some potentially developing elsewhere in the Midlands, perhaps even as far south west as Devon, tonight.

Frequent lightning may result in power outages in some places, with a risk of flash flooding in the heaviest downpours. By the morning rushour, parts of Scotland could see some quite tricky travelling conditions. However into Wednesday, showers will clear away for all but the very far north east, leaving dry and very warm conditions.