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Some parts of the UK will see Snow tonight




Some, but not all! Remember you can access all of our updates (short and long range) via the homepage. You can also access some UK Weather Charts. Right then, it’s already a lot colder for 90% of the country away from the far SW of England & Ireland. Tonight will be a cold one with a patchy frost.

Snow? There’ll be significant snowfall for inland areas of Northern Scotland. Places like Aviemore, Braemar and parts of the A9 road could see 5-10cm possibly tonight. There’ll be sporadic showers in the North, especially around coasts, places like the north of Northern Ireland and northern England could see some showers tonight. But unlike northern Scotland the showers further south will be more of a wintry mix with rain, sleet and hail to lower levels and snow on hills. It’s possible that we could see a more organized area of rain, sleet and wet snow push through central and south eastern England early tomorrow morning giving some wet flakes of snow that’ll probably struggle to settle.

UK Snow Risk: tonight and tomorrow. 

So away from Scotland, any snow tonight will be “trivial” and wont really be disruptive. Ice may be more of an issue with the low temperatures. 0 to -2C in the countryside and +2 to -1 in towns and cities. Perhaps more significantly tomorrow will be sleet and snow showers running down North Sea facing coasts, in particular the coastal areas of east Yorkshire, eastern Lincolnshire, the Lincs. wolds and parts of Norfolk could actually see some significant snow showers tomorrow. 2-3cm could fall in a few places here. Elsewhere it looks largely dry tomorrow but quite a cold day with highs of just 2C in Scotland, 5C in the South.

Friday and the weekend: Friday sees a very cold start with a widespread frost and icy patches in places. Rain however will spread into Ireland, South West England and Wales later in the day, and as it pushes inland towards the Midlands, parts of Northern England especially on the Pennines, we could see some snow. The forecast for Friday is causing a lot of headaches and uncertainties as various computer models handle the situation differently. So my advice is stay tuned to the forecast. There could be a few cm of snow for places like the Peak District, but this is far from a certainty.

The weekend remains cold but probably becoming more gloomy and dank with some hill fog as opposed to the “clear and cold” weather tomorrow.

Next week: likely to be cold, but how cold is the question.

Next week will probably start off how this week left off. Cold. Feeling wintry to with a significant risk of snow for Northern Hills at first, but there’s a chance that more southern areas and to the south could see some of this later in the week, again this is quite uncertain and there’s a small chance things could become milder, however it is now increasingly likely that the UK will be affected by more “seasonable” weather with wintriness possible.

Prepare now: Major blizzard to paralyze sections of the North East this weekend




This is a major blizzard. Winter storm Harper (named) is currently providing over 25 million USA citizens with either a winter storm warning, watch or advisory with brutal snow, ice and blizzard conditions expected in the next 0 to 48 hours.

1.) PREPARE. It’s now looking very likely that interior portions of the North East will see blockbuster snowfall totals and combined with strong winds this major blizzard here will be immobilizing and life threatening.

2.) TAKE ACTION. Take action now to secure the safety of yourself and citizens around you, keep a close eye on NOAA warnings at weather.gov that remain functional during the govt. shutdown.

3.) Be Safe. Be safe during this weekend. This storm is a meteorological beauty (it is scientifically awseome), but life threatening. It has already brought several feet of snowfall to the mountains of California and is on a track eastwards and will score 75% of the Northern States with at least 1 inch of snowfall.

Winter Storm Harper risk map:

The worst affected areas will be the upper North East. Parts of eastern New York State, into central Vermont, Central New Hampshire, Maine and into Newfoundland could see 2 to 4 feet of snowfall.




Next up is a larger area scoping the north of Massachusetts, a larger portion of New York State inclusing the west, north and center of the state. The north of Pennsylvania, potentially places like the Chicago Metro locally due to enhancement of precipitation from lake Michigan, and eastern parts of South Dakota and potentially the south western part of Minnesota. Here lesser totals of at least 8 inches pretty widely are likely with more intense totals of 12 to 14 inches in some higher ground areas. Of course these are just rough figures, and the lines between heavy totals and light totals on the northern flank of the storm and between heavy snow, freezing rain and heavy rain on the south of the storm are very fine.

In the red areas travel really will be impossible, the dark orange near impossible, the lighter orange “moderately challenging” and the yellow “a little challenging”. Of course with the risk of freezing rain for cities perhaps along the western flank of the I-95 corridor that may not see the highest totals (according to the current track of the storm), may be more significantly affected by this storm as an ice storm.

Therefore I’d stay tuned to local forecasts to monitor any potential changes in this storm. A fairly insignificant change to the track of the storm by just 50-100 miles can change the conditions felt at the surface drastically for millions of people. Winds will be strong to so snow drifts will form in rural areas cutting off rural communities for potentially days and leading to travel misery. Freezing rain through Saturday & Sunday is likely for portions of the North East and aiding this storm in becoming a dangerous feature.

Stay tuned to winter storm warnings etc at weather.gov.

Chart 92 snow cold ECM run

UK Weather Outlook: Growing potential for cold second half of January




Yes, so far winter has been mild across the United Kingdom with winds generally in from a westerly direction. However there’s an increased consensus within the numerical computer models for colder weather for the final half of January. This isn’t to say that the UK will be plastered with cold and snow for final ten days of the month, it’s just to say that the chance of it turning properly cold (like, it will feel like Winter finally), is growing. One might say that the upcoming cold has been assisted by the recent Stratospheric “split”, during which the tight polar vortex which is like a reinforcement to cold over the Arctic breaks up into little pieces, making it easier for those cold temps to drain out via those little “pieces”…

Turning colder this week:

The first signs of a change are evident this week with temperatures falling in the north tomorrow before the cold air eventually seeps further south on Wednesday. There will be some wintry showers tomorrow, significant snowfall for parts of Northern Scotland with 5-10cm expected by Thursday on high ground via showers, with some light wintry showers draped around northern coasts, perhaps some flurries for the Pennines and Snowdonia to. To start Thursday most in land areas will be dry with a patchy frost, but early on there will still be some wintry showers of rain, sleet and light snow draped around some coastal areas.




Pink = Snow, blue = Rain. Notice the deep blue colors over northern Scotland;

Dry and cold for Thursday:

Thursday will be a colder than average day, the first of possibly quite a few, with highs of 3/4C for the Midlands, 6C on the South Coast and 1-3C for Scotland. Early Friday looks like a cold one, many central and eastern areas seeing a moderate frost with high humidity levels, temperatures down to -4C locally.

Wintry on Friday;

Although there is significant uncertainty, as a weather front progresses into the cold air on Friday there’s the potential for some snowfall. Exactly where and how much, and the exact timing remains uncertain and will be resolved by Thursday. However given that this event is now 3 or so days away there is increasing confidence that some areas will be affected by snow. The most likely areas are parts of Northern England, Wales and the North Midlands, that’s not to say snow is forecast in these areas but the highest chances are these areas. Keep an eye on the forecast. There’s the prospect of something a little milder for the south west simultaneously, with temperatures rising to 6 to 8C in the south west perhaps.

Chilly weekend;

The weekend’s forecast depends on how Friday’s slider low materializes, so confidence is low. However we keep that risk of some snow for northern hills and keep it chilly. Where skies clear early on Saturday a frost is possible and more especially on Sunday morning, gloomy for eastern coasts and in general perhaps quite a cloudy weekend; with the chance of some light rain / hill snow into Scotland later on…

The week of 21st to 25th of January 2019:

This looks like another chilly week. Temperatures are likely to be held below average thanks to a “blocked” pattern – meaning that the usual west to east flow across the North Atlantic is blocked and instead cold air is allowed to drain down from the Arctic. Uncertain as regards to how cold, there’s a low (20%) chance of very cold weather and easterly winds, with a 50% chance of generally cool-cold weather, and a 30% chance of average or milder than average temperatures; so the week look set up for cold as it stands.




And yes, with colder than average temperatures in January comes with it the risk of snowfall, especially to higher ground. I would normally disregard charts 7 days away as being highly uncertain but given recent Stratospheric happenings; charts like these becoming a reality (this one is very cold and quite snowy), this could (could), become a reality;

Chart 92 snow cold ECM run

Major immobilising snowstorm & icestorm to to target much of country




The early stages:

Confidence is now pretty high (although far from 100% with regards to the details) that some areas will be affected by snow accumulations of over 12 inches within the space of 24 hours. The snow will be heavy with rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour leading to the likelihood of some major travel issues this weekend. A lesser system beforehand will bring 2-4 inches of snow for in land areas of the North East on Friday with inland Pennsylvania, New York state, Vermont, NH and Maine affected by snow.




At the same time, significant snowfall will be developing behind the system on Friday in South Dakota, northern parts of Nebraska, and later into Friday night for parts of Iowa, Kansas potentially, before the storm heads towards the lakes for Saturday. This is associated with the major weekend storm which sweep a nasty mix of heavy rain, freezing rain and very heavy snow across much of the country.

The Snow / Ice risk in more detail through the weekend:

The system will be affecting parts of the mid west and great lakes by Saturday with heavy snow, low visibility and near impossible travel. Chicago could see 1-3 inches, with accumulations being very much significantly higher for central northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, here totals could be up to 12-16 inches in places. The diving line between rain and snow will be across central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio with heavy rain to the south. Rainfall on Saturday could be really intense for these more southern states (Kentucky, Tennesse etc). The map below gives an overview of how much snow could fall from this but beware, this is only a preliminary prediction and is subject to changes.

Major snow storm forecast

As you can make out, this winter storm is packing a punch. It’s not just snow of course – a warm sector within the storm system will produce rain for parts of Pennsylvania and New York state, in fact anywhere in the North East could see snow, then freezing rain then more snow producing a very challenging environment. In some places over an inch of ice could fall. Although things could still change it’s looking likely that south east of the I-95 impacts will be lesser with temperatures staying closer to freezing, but this could change.

Some of the highest snowfall totals are likely to be in the hills of say NY state, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine with up to 24 inches (2ft) possible here. Closer to 1ft is likely for those northern parts of Ohio, close to lake Erie, with totals above 6 inches extending into northern Indiana and Illinois, though some places even here will see close to 1ft we think. The snow will extend into southern parts of Quebec to, where here cities such as Montreal and Sherbrooke will likely see some high snowfall totals. Stay tuned to local weather forecasts, NOAA warnings @ weather.gov and our updates of course. Stay safe!




Monday morning update… Snow? UK 5-10 day outlook

Good morning – a really boring couple of days coming up weather wise (yet again!). Today (Monday) looks boring with just a few light showers in the north and west, drier in the south. It’s cold enough for some of those light showers to turn to snow above 200-300m in Northern Scotland but no where else. Skies clear for south eastern parts tonight and here we run the risk of a frost in rural areas to start Tuesday. A bit brighter here for tomorrow however further north we keep a rash of cloud and a few light showers dotted about but nothing major. Winds will begin to increase later on Tuesday heralding a change..

It turns increasingly unsettled from the north west by the early hours of Wednesday with lots of rain tracking south east. It’s likely most of us will pick up at least some moderate bursts of rain on Wednesday but once the cold front sweeps away (hopefully it will have done by tea time), it will turn drier into the evening for the mainland, but colder. Highs of “just” 5/6C (Scotland -50C) but I mean that’s only slightly below average… However, there will be a rash of wintry showers for the north west, Scotland parts of Ireland, hills of Wales and parts of the Pennines, scattered minor accumulations of snow on high ground areas in the north of 1-5cm above 300 metres for Scotland and even more scattered in the Pennines but there will be a touch for some.

The below chart shows precipitation type forecast from the NMM model for midnight on Thursday (Wednesday night). There’s some support for a trough to enhance the precipitation activity in the far north during this time frame. This could bring a sprinkling of snow to places like Durham and Scotland, especially but perhaps not limited to higher ground. Pink indicates snow, blue rain.

Thursday looks like a bit of a restbite, a patchy frost and chilly start but a good deal of sunshine through the day. Wintry showers continuing around coasts in the north west but becoming a bit lighter through the day. It will  The weather is likely to remain on the chilly side into the weekend. Some frost. Some rain. And potentially some snow. One system which is giving forecasters a headache is the potential slider low forecast for Friday. This has the potential to produce snow as the moisture associated with it engages with the cold air at the surface over the British Isles. Saying where, when, and how much is uncertain however I’d say parts of the Midlands, and especially on high ground could see a little on Friday and into Saturday, but this is prone to changes (upgrades and downgrades). For now it’s just a possibility…

So a cold weekend either way, with a ridge of high pressure modelled to push in on Sunday / Monday. So there are differences between the GFS, ECM and UKMO with regards to the weekend’s disturbance, but all 3 have a fairly similar outcome for Sunday / Monday which is this ridge building in. So probably an enhanced risk of frost later on in the weekend and into Monday, but still some minor wintry potential which needs monitoring. There is good consensus for very disturbed weather later into next week, probably from Tuesday the 22nd on wards with a wrath of low pressure and the weather associated with it. However it would not be particularly mild, as the air with the low looks rather cold. So central and northern areas have to watch out for wintry showers and snow showers maybe next week, watch out for the risk. And stay tuned to the forecast :D.

If you happen to scroll down this page and find snow warnings, they’re for the USA.

Latest on the potential Major Snowstorm this weekend




1.) PREPARE. It’s now looking very likely that interior portions of the North East will see blockbuster snowfall totals and combined with strong winds this major blizzard here will be immobilizing and life threatening.

2.) TAKE ACTION. Take action now to secure the safety of yourself and citizens around you, keep a close eye on NOAA warnings at weather.gov that remain functional during the govt. shutdown.

3.) Be Safe. Be safe during this weekend. This storm is a meteorological beauty (it is scientifically awseome), but life threatening. It has already brought several feet of snowfall to the mountains of California and is on a track eastwards and will score 75% of the Northern States with at least 1 inch of snowfall.

The early stages:

Confidence is now high that some areas will be affected by snow accumulations of over 12 inches within the space of 24 hours. The snow will be heavy with rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour leading to the likelihood of some major travel issues this weekend. A lesser system will bring 2-4 inches of snow for in land areas of the North East on Friday with inland Pennsylvania, New York state, Vermont, NH and Maine affected by snow.

At the same time, significant snowfall will be developing behind the system on Friday in South Dakota, northern parts of Nebraska, and later into Friday night for parts of Iowa, Kansas potentially, before the storm heads towards the lakes for Saturday. This is associated with the major weekend storm which sweep a nasty mix of heavy rain, freezing rain and heavy snow across much of the country.

The Snow / Ice risk in more detail through the weekend:

The system will be affecting parts of the mid west and great lakes. Chicago could see 1-3 inches, with accumulations being significantly higher for central northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, here totals could be up to 12-16 inches in places. The diving line between rain and snow will be across central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio with heavy rain to the south. Rainfall on Saturday could be really intense for these more southern states (Kentucky, Tennesse etc). The map below gives an overview of how much snow could fall from this but beware, this is only a preliminary prediction and is subject to changes.

Major snow storm forecast

As you can make out, this winter storm is packing a punch. It’s not just snow of course – a warm sector within the storm system will produce rain for parts of Pennsylvania and New York state, in fact anywhere in the North East could see snow, then freezing rain then more snow producing a very challenging environment. In some places over an inch of ice could fall. Although things could still change it’s looking likely that south east of the I-95 impacts will be lesser with temperatures staying closer to freezing, but this could change.

Some of the highest snowfall totals are likely to be in the hills of say NY state, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine with up to 24 inches (2ft) possible here. Closer to 1ft is likely for those northern parts of Ohio, close to lake Erie, with totals above 6 inches extending into northern Indiana and Illinois, though some places even here will see close to 1ft we think. The snow will extend into southern parts of Quebec to, where here cities such as Montreal and Sherbrooke will likely see some high snowfall totals. Areas from Albany over to Manchester vt and central NH will also see a swathe of blockbuster totals! Stay tuned to local weather forecasts, NOAA warnings @ weather.gov and our updates of course. Stay safe!